Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1103 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE SOME RECENT INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER TEXAS. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ONCE INITIATED...SHOULD BE EXPLOSIVE THIS AFTERNOON.

NEAR TERM FORECASTS APPEAR ON TRACK.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008/

AVIATION...
WEATHER REMAINED QUIET THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. DRY AIR
WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SLY FLOW HAS CONTD TO BRING SPRINGLIKE CONDS TO AR OVR THE PAST 24
HRS. TEMPS ACRS THE STATE RUNNING MAINLY IN THE 60S ATTM...WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S N TO LOWER 60S OVR CNTRL AND SRN
AR. MEANWHILE...STRONG CDFNT WAS NOTED TO THE NW OF AR EARLY THIS
MRNG...RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION ALONG THE
BNDRY HAS CONTD TO SHIFT NEWD INTO MO OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE STARTING TO FIRE FURTHER SWD OVR ERN TX AND WL IMPACT MAINLY WRN
AR LATER THIS MRNG.

MAIN FCST CONCERN CONTS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS OVR THE
FA LATER TODAY AND TNGT. MODELS HAVE CONTD TO TREND SOMEWHAT SLOWER
WITH THE OVERALL EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPR TROF AND SFC CDFNT THRU
AR OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO PRECIP TIMING TO GOING FCST. WITH INCRSG SFC WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WL ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE FA FM LATE THIS
MRNG THRU 00Z.

CONDS WL BE PRIME OVR AR FOR SVR STORM FORMATION LATER TODAY AND
TNGT. FCST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING INDC CAPES
ARND 1000 J/KG...WITH FCST HELICITY VALUES RANGING FM 250-350 M2/S2
OVR MOST OF AR BY THIS AFTN. STORMS WL ALSO BE AIDED BY A STRONG UPR
LVL JET MAX /ARND 125 KTS/ FCST TO PASS ACRS THE REGION TNGT.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE TYPE OF STORM FORMATION THAT
WL OCCUR LATER TODAY. MODELS INDC THAT A SQUALL LINE WL EVENTUALLY
EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT AS IT WORKS THRU THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN
AND TNGT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS A MAJOR CONCERN. IF INDIVIDUAL CELLS
ARE ABLE TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FNT...THEY WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE TORNADOES.

RAIN CHCS WL DCRS LATER TNGT AS THE CDFNT SWEEPS EWD AND DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WL STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR
LINGERING PRECIP TO RMN LIQUID ACRS NRN AR BEFORE ENDING BY LATE
EVENING. NRN STREAM WL BRING ANOTHER SYS SEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH
WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR.

NO SIG CHGS MADE TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK UPR LVL SYS/
ASSOCD CDFNT WL PASS ACRS THE AREA THU AND EARLY THU NGT...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT AND SOME CLOUDS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DISTURBANCES TOWARDS THE
REGION...BUT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
STATE SUNDAY...SO DID NOT GO AS COOL AS GUIDANCE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE ON MONDAY...AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND
MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  38  46  26 /  90  80  10   0
CAMDEN AR         77  43  52  31 /  80  70  10   0
HARRISON AR       68  34  42  26 / 100  40  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  40  50  30 /  90  50   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  42  51  29 /  90  70  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     77  45  53  30 /  70  90  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      74  38  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  35  42  24 / 100  60  10   0
NEWPORT AR        73  40  48  27 /  90  80  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  43  52  30 /  80  80  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  37  44  28 / 100  40  10   0
SEARCY AR         75  42  50  28 /  90  80  10   0
STUTTGART AR      77  43  52  29 /  80  80  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1035 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1035 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ALL INTERESTS IN ARKANSAS ARE URGED TO MONITOR WEATHER
BULLETINS...AND SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE SAFETY
MEASURES AS REQUIRED.

A COLD FRONT...APPROACHING EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS
MORNING...IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.  AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
MOISTURE CONDITIONS PREVAILED.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...NOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS...IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE LIFT...TO OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FRONT WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IS ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY...AND WILL
LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE.

FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILES OF TEMPERATURE...MOISTURE...AND WIND
INDICATE THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.  ALSO...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

THIS IS A DEVELOPING SITUATION...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS
FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION CAN
BE FOUND AT THE NWS LITTLE ROCK WEB SITE . GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV
AND CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS....THEN FEB 5 /SEVERE OUTBREAK/.

55/57/46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
240 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             CLARKSVILLE             35.46N 93.47W
02/05/2008  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0220 PM     HAIL             LUDWIG                  35.35N 93.43W
02/05/2008  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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