Flash Flood Warning 95, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
638 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

.AVIATION...
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS REACHING CENTRAL ARKANSAS...BUT THE FRONT
MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PATTERN CHANGE BEING SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
OMNI PRESENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FINALLY BEING BROKEN
DOWN. COLD FRONT STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WHILE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN CHANGE
THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM...ESPECIALLY IN
THE QPF FIELD. GFS SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME TYPE OF FEEDBACK
WHICH HAS GENERATED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE
TIMING OF THE GFS IS STILL PREFERRED OVER THE NAM. BEST COURSE OF
ACTION SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF MODELS THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWING THE
GFS TIMING AND MOVEMENT WHILE GOING WITH THE QPF GENERATED OFF THE
NAM12.

LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWING THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
HAS MOVED FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS INTO WESTERN ONTARIO
PROVENCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT FROM NEAR
CHICAGO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
EXACT LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT WITH THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LAID OUT FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS THAT ROLLED
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY POPPING UP IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRECEDING THE FRONT. CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL
LIKELY BE AIDED BY THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE EVENING.
MAIN FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXIT
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MID DAY SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE. MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS BOUNDARY WITH TIME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN NOT BE EXCLUDED AT THIS TIME AS PWATS
REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES AND SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
RIPPLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGHER PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW STILL NOT DONE AFFECTING SENSIBLE WEATHER
OVER THE MID SOUTH. UPPER LOW PINWHEELS AROUND FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION AND DROPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. RESULTANT FLOW BUCKLES WITH EASTERN CONUS TROF BEING CARVED
OUT AND SUBSEQUENT RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE MUDDLED AFTER SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL COLD
FRONTS/IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE. MODELS DIVERGE ON BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
WAVES AND WILL GO WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND HERE. FIRST IMPULSES LOOKS
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY WHILE SECOND IMPULSE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD
ON POPS AT THIS POINT BUT PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE
EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY IN THE EXTENDED. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
LOOK A LITTLE OVERDONE AND WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE HERE BUT OTHERWISE
THE MEX/MAV NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...WITH NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...WITH MODELS EVEN HINTING AT MCS
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...AND
TREND ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED...DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  89  68  92 /  60  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         72  92  72  94 /  40  50  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  88  67  90 /  60  20  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  91  71  93 /  40  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  91  70  93 /  40  40  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  92  71  94 /  50  50  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      70  91  71  93 /  50  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  88  67  91 /  60  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        69  89  68  93 /  50  30  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  91  71  94 /  40  50  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  90  69  91 /  50  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         69  90  69  93 /  50  40  10  10
STUTTGART AR      70  91  70  94 /  40  40  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...32

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