Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
320 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF ARKANSAS BORDER. STILL NO RETURNS ON
KLZK RADAR. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH THIS
EVENING. ALSO A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
AREA DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE MEAN RH WILL CONTINUE HIGH ON TUE. SHRA AND TSRA CHCS WILL
CONTINUE TUE INTO WED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE MODELS. WL CONT TO GO WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THEM FOR NOW. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MILD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     48  57  36  58 /  70  40  10  10
CAMDEN AR         55  70  43  64 /  30  20   0  10
HARRISON AR       45  54  34  57 /  70  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    52  67  40  62 /  30  20   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  52  64  39  62 /  40  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     56  69  42  64 /  30  20   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      52  66  40  62 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  46  54  35  57 /  70  30  10  10
NEWPORT AR        49  59  36  59 /  70  40  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     54  67  40  63 /  40  20   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   49  61  37  60 /  50  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         51  61  37  60 /  60  30  10  10
STUTTGART AR      52  65  39  62 /  50  30  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...38

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR DAY ONE TIME FRAME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
700 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
700 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

EARLY THIS EVENING...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WAS IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH A WARM FRONT NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA
BORDER. THE FRONT SEPARATED COOL AIR TO ITS NORTH FROM MUCH WARMER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST. AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 DEGREES AT BLYTHEVILLE TO 81 DEGREES AT
EL DORADO.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.
THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT...AND SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.

AS OF 7 PM...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP
IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND WILL BECOME LIKELY FARTHER
NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD
MISSOURI.

LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...GIVEN THAT IT WILL BE COLD
ALOFT AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS.
HOWEVER...STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE...GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE TIED TO WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

HELICITY VALUES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AROUND THE FRONT AS THE STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS WILL ELEVATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING
STORMS TO ROTATE. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AT NIGHT. PEOPLE SHOULD
MAKE SURE THEY CAN RECEIVE WARNING INFORMATION WHILE THEY SLEEP. ONE
OPTION WOULD BE A TONE ALERTED DEVICE SUCH AS NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER TEXAS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN COULD OCCUR...WITH FLASH
FLOODING A CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1031 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     HAIL             BUENA VISTA             33.48N 92.95W
03/14/2008  E1.75 INCH       OUACHITA           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1012 PM     HAIL             5 W LOUANN              33.39N 92.88W
03/14/2008  E1.75 INCH       OUACHITA           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL FELL IN PACE CITY.

1023 PM     HAIL             LOUANN                  33.39N 92.79W
03/14/2008  E1.75 INCH       OUACHITA           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
205 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 AM     HAIL             PETIT JEAN STATE PARK   35.13N 92.90W
03/15/2008  E1.75 INCH       CONWAY             AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0148 AM     HAIL             1 W SPRINGFIELD         35.27N 92.58W
03/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       CONWAY             AR   PUBLIC

&&

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
225 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 AM     HAIL             CONWAY                  35.09N 92.45W
03/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       FAULKNER           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT MILE MARKER 125 IN CONWAY.

&&

58