Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
246 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS MCV OVER
OKLAHOMA HEADS AROUND THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MORE THAN AMPLE
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN STORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE CAP BREAKS.
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT FAIRLY WELL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT
THE MOST INSTABILITY IS OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED STRONG/
SEVERE STORMS A POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING...MOSTLY OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA.

MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH
REMNANTS AFFECTING NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON MONDAY. AREA STILL WILL BE
IN WARM...HUMID MOSTLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION PATTERN. BY TUESDAY...RIDGE
WILL START TO FLATTEN OUT AND RETROGRADE... WHICH WILL ALLOW FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY OR IN
THE EVENING. AS IT MOVES ACROSS...SEVERAL UPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS AND INTERACT WITH IT...GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP IT/S SEEN IN THE LAST WEEK OR TWO.

SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A COOLDOWN IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S...SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE UPR FLOW WL FLATTEN...WITH A EXPANSIVE
UPR RDG PROGGED TO COVER THE SRN PART OF THE NATION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES WL PREVAIL OVR THE FA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LTL IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. THE
UPR RDG WL WEAKEN ENOUGH BY THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW A NEW CDFNT WL
AFFECT AR BY SAT AND SUN. WENT WITH SLGT CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA FOR NOW
AS THERE WL LIKELY BE TIMING ISSUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. DID NOT
STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS/NCEP TEMPS THRU THE PD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  89  71  86 /  30  30  50  50
CAMDEN AR         73  91  73  92 /  20  20  20  30
HARRISON AR       71  88  70  84 /  30  30  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  90  72  90 /  20  20  30  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  90  72  89 /  20  20  40  40
MONTICELLO AR     74  91  73  91 /  20  20  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      72  90  72  89 /  20  20  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  88  71  83 /  30  30  50  50
NEWPORT AR        72  89  72  87 /  30  30  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     73  90  73  90 /  20  20  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  90  71  88 /  20  30  40  50
SEARCY AR         72  90  72  88 /  20  30  40  50
STUTTGART AR      73  90  73  89 /  20  20  40  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1135 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-261000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1135 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING...ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER ARKANSAS...WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES
WILL EXIST OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM OKLAHOMA.

WHILE THE CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LIMITED...
A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL BE NORTH ON MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL
EXIST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. SOME OF THE STORMS ON TUESDAY MAY
DROP HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME SPOTS...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED MORE CLOSELY AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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