Flash Flood Warning 81, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
202 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE SHORT TERM WITH POP CHANCES AND SEVERE STORM
THREAT. CURRENT SLIGHT RISK OVER AR WITH MAIN THREAT LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. TORNADO THREAT LOW WITH LACKING WIND SHEAR.
OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM.

CURRENT AREA 88D RADARS HAVE CONVECTION FORMING OVER CENTRAL AR
WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME ISOLATED INTENSIFICATION...BUT SEEN MOST
STORMS CAPPED OUT. OTHER STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG COLD FRONT OVER
NE OK TO NW AR...WITH A SOLID LINE. CURRENTLY ONLY ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH IN PLACE DESTABILIZATION...MOISTURE AND
LIFTING MECHANISMS. GFS MODEL FOCUSES ENERGY OVER ENTIRE STATE OF
AR AND MAINLY WITH FRONTAL BAND AND SHORTWAVE...WHILE NAM FOCUSES
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO NE. RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A FEW TENTHS TO
AROUND HALF AN INCH...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR MORE
WITH STRONGER STORMS OR ANY TRAINING OF CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POP IN FIRST PERIOD WITH SOME ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS E-NE...THE COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH FOR A
SECOND ROUND FOR SOME LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
PUSHING THE MAIN SURGE OF CONVECTION TO EASTERN AR THEN OUT OF THE
STATE FROM 06Z TO 12Z. NAM HOLDS ONTO SOME OVER SOUTHERN PARTS
WITH THE ADDED SHORTWAVE IT GENERATES...BUT LIKE GFS MOVEMENT
BETTER. THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN OVER AR FOR SATURDAY
WITH A DRY AND A BIT COOLER DAY. THIS IS SHORT LIVED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE THE SW PLAINS AND EAST TO THE SE
PLAINS...WITH AGAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW. THEN THE PATTERN GENERALLY SETS
UP FOR A DRY AND WARMING TREND PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PROGRESSIVE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH MANY
SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE STATE...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...AND INCLUDED
THEM ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. OVERALL...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR    46 72 47 64 / 80 10 30 50
CAMDEN AR        55 77 55 65 / 80 10 50 60
HARRISON AR      45 70 44 57 / 70 10 30 40
HOT SPRINGS AR   52 75 50 64 / 70 10 40 50
LITTLE ROCK AR   53 74 51 65 / 80 10 40 60
MONTICELLO AR    56 74 55 65 / 80 10 50 60
MOUNT IDA AR     49 74 49 64 / 60 10 50 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 44 72 45 58 / 70 10 30 40
NEWPORT AR       47 73 50 65 / 80 10 30 50
PINE BLUFF AR    55 73 54 65 / 80 10 40 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR  48 74 48 63 / 60 10 40 50
SEARCY AR        50 73 50 64 / 80 10 30 50
STUTTGART AR     53 73 53 65 / 80 10 40 60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-261000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARKANSAS. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED...THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST MONTH WILL CONTINUE
TO CAUSE FLOODING OF RIVERS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS ACROSS
MUCH OF ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A NEW COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. SOME FROST COULD
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST MONTH WILL CONTINUE
TO CAUSE FLOODING OF RIVERS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS ACROSS
MUCH OF ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

28

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