Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
TAKES OVER AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES LIKELY ELSEWHERE. SOME STORMS
WILL BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. EVEN
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT PRESENT...GRADIENT WINDS NEAR 30 MPH
WILL PERSIST. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
AREA WIDE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS TODAY ARE MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE AND
FLOODING ACROSS ARKANSAS. VERY ACTIVE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TO NORTH AR...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER N-CENTRAL
AR...AND AS THE UPPER ENERGY LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH SOME TORNADIC POTENTIAL ALONG WITH HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. 50+ KNT 850MB JET SURGING OVER NW AR...AND WITH
VEERING PROFILE...HAVE ALLOWED A FEW STORMS TO GO TORNADIC. REST
ARE SEVERE WITH HAIL...WIND POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES
OVER AREA...WITH FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED FOR MANY
COUNTIES. PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND A INCH...BUT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH JET ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. CURRENT TORNADO
WATCH. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE UP TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS AR TODAY
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES. WIND PROFILES WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT
TORNADIC DEVELOP...WITH ISOLATED SUPER CELLS WITH POTENTIALLY
STRONG AND LONGER LIVED TORNADOES. STRONG SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...CENTRAL AREAS
AND THE LITTLE ROCK AREA AROUND NOON TO AFTERNOON...THEN IN THE
EAST IN THE EVENING. JET DYNAMICS REMAIN STRONG AND IMPRESSIVE
VEERING PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH LI TO -5...CAPE TO AROUND
1500 J/KG...& HELICITY OF 0-3KM NEARLY 1000 M2/S2. THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LOW PULL MORE N-NE...WHICH MAY SHEAR DYNAMICS JUST A BIT.
MODELS HAVE SPED THINGS UP A BIT...WITH THE SQUALL LINE PUSHING
EAST OF AR 00Z TO 04Z. WILL SEE SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING. SECONDARY
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...SO SOME PRECIP LINGERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE ALL
PUSHING EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER TEMPS. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW IN PLACE INITIALLY. PATTERN IS KNOCKED DOWN
SOMEWHAT AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES AS NEXT SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO EXIST BUT THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER. THAT BEING SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION THIS MORNING.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH LARGE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/UPPER MIDWEST
..ANCHORED BY LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EASTERN CONUS TROFS.
INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT
WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
OVER THE EAST INITIALLY BUT OVERALL GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES.

SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
OUT AND DRAG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SYSTEM LACKS MOISTURE AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.
WITH PRONOUNCED NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND DAYS SIX
AND SEVEN. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  56  64  42 / 100  70  20  20
CAMDEN AR         80  59  71  46 / 100  70  30  10
HARRISON AR       73  50  60  39 / 100  40  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  57  70  43 / 100  50  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  59  70  44 / 100  70  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     81  61  71  48 /  80  80  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      76  55  70  43 / 100  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  52  61  38 / 100  40  20  10
NEWPORT AR        76  59  65  43 / 100  80  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     79  60  71  46 /  90  90  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  53  65  41 / 100  40  10  10
SEARCY AR         76  58  68  43 / 100  80  20  20
STUTTGART AR      78  61  70  45 /  90  90  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...A DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ACROSS ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED
TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF RIVERS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
THIS INCLUDES THE BLACK RIVER...THE LOWER WHITE RIVER...THE CACHE
AND OUACHITA RIVERS.

DANGEROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH A POWERFUL MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD...WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-LIVED...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH
THE GROUND NEARLY SATURATED IN MOST AREAS...IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT
OF RAIN TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL ALSO AFFECT RIVER FLOODING CONDITIONS.

RESIDENTS ACROSS ARKANSAS ARE ADVISED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER...AND
FLASH FLOOD SAFETY RULES.  ALSO...PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM FOR SEVERAL DAYS
OF DRY CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK/HTML/SVR0408.HTM

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