Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1149 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH ARKANSAS TODAY WITH A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING
IN THE NORTH WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN WILL MIX WITH
SLEET AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
BY EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS AND THEN THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TONIGHT. BY 18Z THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW...MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008/

UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF OVER ONE
INCH PER HOUR NOTED PER RADAR ESTIMATES...AND CONFIRMED BY GAGES.

OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED DERIVED FIELDS INDICATE THAT SURFACE BASED
CAPE WILL BE LIMITED TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008/

AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND AT TIMES WILL LOWER TO
LIFR TODAY AND POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO TONIGHT.
(GUTIERREZ)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS TODAY WITH MAJOR SYSTEM ARE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...
STRONG WINDS...FLOODING POTENTIAL...THEN WINTER WEATHER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

CURRENT TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 AM WITH ONLY STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS OVER EASTERN OK TO NW AR. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND WILL NEED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TODAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN OK MAKING
SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT AS
UPPER DYNAMICS PUSH OVER THE AREA. HAVE ONLY SEEN WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH STORMS...WITH OVERALL LINEAR LINE OF STORMS. SOME
MINOR BOWING SEEN...BUT SO FAR MAINLY A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
EVENT. STILL EXPECT SOME WARNINGS...BUT MORE LIKELY LATER TODAY.
00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A VEERING PATTERN...BUT MORE IMPRESSIVE IS
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 30-50 KNOTS GRADIENT LEVEL THROUGH 6K FT.
PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS UP TO NEAR ONE INCH.

THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER NM AND PIVOTING TOWARD EAST TEXAS WITH
FIRST SURGE OF DYNAMICS. MORE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS AR LATER
TODAY. DAY ONE SPC OUTLOOK HAS MODERATE RISK OVER SE AR...AND
SLIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE EXPANDING FLOOD WATCH TO COVER THE ENTIRE STATE WITH
EXPECTED RAINS. A GOOD 1-3+ INCH WIDE BAND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE. WILL ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF AR WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND EXPECTED STRONG SOUTH FLOW. WILL UPGRADE WINTER STORM
WATCH OVER FAR NORTH AR TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...WITH EXPECTED
3-5 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTH OF THE WARNING...WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLE 1-3 INCHES OF
POSSIBLE SNOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

MODELS ARE NOW TAKING THE SURFACE LOW ON A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST
TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE KEEP THE UPPER LOW ON A SIMILAR
TRACK RIGHT ACROSS AR. OVERALL WEATHER SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED.
TODAY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL FOCUS OVER E TX...FAR SOUTHERN AR...TO LA. VEERING
PROFILE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...WITH MAIN THREAT STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
TRAINING AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS...AND WITH ISOLATED FLASHING
FLOODING IN SPOTS. LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS WILL BE REACHED ALL
DAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THEN AS THE SURFACE LOW DROPS E-SE...
AROUND 00Z TO 06Z...AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS AR...COLD AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE NW-N PARTS OF AR. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A
MIXTURE...THEN ALL SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW
COULD CONTINUE IN FAR NORTH AR AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE PULLS TO
THE NE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE STATE WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...WITH GOOD WRAP AROUND STRATUS FILLING IN...BEFORE
THINNING LATE DAY. THEN A WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR...SOME CLOUDS...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP
THURSDAY WITH A BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS AR. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
OVERALL A TRANQUIL PERIOD WILL PREVAIL. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES DO MOVE THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS TIME
NOT SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  28  38  30 / 100  90  30  10
CAMDEN AR         69  35  48  32 / 100  70  20  10
HARRISON AR       52  23  36  28 / 100  90  40  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  32  47  31 / 100  70  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  34  46  31 / 100  80  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  37  43  33 / 100  80  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      60  28  48  30 / 100  70  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  25  35  28 / 100  90  40  10
NEWPORT AR        62  29  37  32 / 100  80  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  37  43  33 / 100  80  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  31  43  29 / 100  80  20  10
SEARCY AR         67  34  44  31 / 100  80  20  10
STUTTGART AR      69  35  42  33 / 100  80  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-
NEWTON-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-MARION-SHARP.

&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
948 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL-
948 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
DEVELOPING STORM. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THIS MOISTURE...RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY TODAY...WITH TWO TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS BEING COMMON OVER THE
WEST AND NORTH AS NUMEROUS STORMS COULD MOVE OVER THE SAME GENERAL
AREA. SOME AREAS COULD EVEN PICK UP MORE THAN FOUR INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF
ARKANSAS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF ARKANSAS...WITH A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. THE GREATEST
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

LAKE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF ARKANSAS TODAY.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST TUESDAY FOR BAXTER...BOONE...FULTON...IZARD...MARION AND SHARP.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. THESE
AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WILL GET 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED OFF LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...ONCE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...SOME
SNOW IS LIKELY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE AND SEARCY. ONE OR
TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. SOME
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS LITTLE ROCK...WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY
CLEAR THE AREA BY MID DAY TUESDAY.

KEEP IN MIND THIS FORECAST MAY STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
STAY INFORMED BY MONITORING THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1159 AM CST MON MAR 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S PARIS               35.25N 93.72W
03/03/2008                   LOGAN              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STATE HIGHWAY 109 FLOODED SOUTH OF PARIS. SHORT MOUNTAIN
            RD AND NORTH CARBON CITY RD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

56