Flash Flood Warning 122, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
253 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH AREA FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. ALSO...ANOTHER BOUNDARY
IS MOVING SOUTH FROM MISSOURI. THESE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNSET.

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS SLOWLY MOVING
BACK TO THE WEST...LEAVING THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. A WEAK FRONT
ACROSS MISSOURI WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH...BUT WILL NOT MAKE IT FAR
INTO THE STATE. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HOWEVER...HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL STILL BE HIGH...WITH READINGS AROUND 100 DEGREES.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S AROUND THE
WEEKEND...AS CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE AS THICK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...BUT HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

58/46/61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
130 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
130 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIT AND MISS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THIS EVENING. WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE...AND STORMS WILL TEND TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS ARE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.

STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. PENNY SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION...IT WILL BE VERY HOT ACROSS THE STATE.
HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THESE HEAT INDICES FALL JUST
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT IS STILL DANGEROUS TO OVER
EXERT YOURSELF DURING THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE DAY. REMEMBER TO STAY
HYDRATED AND REDUCE STRENUOUS ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE AS THE FRONT FROM
THE NORTH BECOMES STATIONARY. THEY WILL MAINLY FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE STATE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. ISOLATED STORMS WILL STAY IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY...AND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENINGS.

DUE TO THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUDS...HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT STILL BE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THESE OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

59/46

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