Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
317 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HELPING TO FOCUS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION DVLPNG AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF AXIS CRNTLY SLIDING SE/WRD
ACRS THE SRN OH RVR VALLEY AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
ISLTD STORMS HAVE A DECENT HAIL THREAT W/ A FAIRLY LOW WBZ FZL.
MAINLY CONCERNED ABOUT OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS TWRD SUNSET AS THE
SRN EDGE OF THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROF NEAR THE LOWER BAY/SRN
MD. OUTFLOW FROM SVR WX ACROSS WV MAY ADD ADDITIONAL LL FORCING TO
CONVECTION /ALREADY IN THE 30-40KT STEERING FLOW/ MAY NOT SHOW MUCH
DISSIPATION TILL IT/S MOVED OUT OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVNG...ESPC W/
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DWPNTS ACROSS CNTL/ERN VA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY/...
POPS INCRD TO CHNC/SCTD TSTMS FOR THE EVNG HRS...DISPTNG QUICKLY
LATE EVNG. WINDS ALSO SUBSIDING OVRNGHT. THE CNTR OF AN APRCHNG SFC
HIGH WILL TURN WINDS MORE N-NW/RLY...A TREND LASTING THRU MON EVNG.
HIGHS MON A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER W/ THE UPPER NW FLOW REGION
OVERHEAD...MODIFYING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE STALLING
OVER SOUTH/CENTRAL VIRGINIA THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL
DURING THIS TIME...WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
EAST IN THE FLOW. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAY TURN OUT TO BE A FAIRLY
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR THE CWFA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRESENT IN THE MID LEVELS. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ITS VICINITY.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT TRAVELING ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST IN
THE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE TYPES OF FEATURES CAN BE VERY
DIFFICULT TO TIME...AND SCATTERED POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NON-STEADY WIND GUSTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND A GENERAL
W/RLY DRCTN. A WEAK CONVERGENCE SIGNAL SHOWING NW/RLY WINDS ACROSS
THE NRN MD-NRN VA REGION...A TRANSITIONAL W/RLY WIND ACROSS THE I-66
CRDR...AND SW/RLY WINDS S OF I-66. SCTD TO ISLD TSTMS WILL BE PSBLE
ACRS THE REGION THRU LATE EVNG. I-95 CRDR NOT EXPTD TO SEE ACTIVITY
LIKE SAT AFTN...THO A FEW ISLTD WIND GUSTS 30-40KT CERTAINLY PSBLE
W/ ANY INDVDL TSTM CELL. STORM TOPS 25-30KFT EXPTD TO REMAIN IN THIS
REALM...HOLDING TGTHER FAIRLY WELL AS THEY PROGRESS E/WRD. WATCHING
FOR STORMS ACROSS PRTNS OF WV MAKING IT INTO THE SHENDH VALLEY AND
PNTS EAST LATER THIS EVNG...W/ A GENERAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION
AFT SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECR BY THIS TIME...W/ CLEARING SKIES OVRNGT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY. LIGHT N/RLY WINDS AND FEW
MID DECKS EXPTD MON AFTN.

NEXT CHANCE FOR REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER SOUTH/CENTRAL
VA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK. &&

.MARINE...
SCA EXPTD TO EXP THIS EVNG W/ LITTLE RESISTANCE BY THE ENVRMNT OTHER
THAN STORM OUTFLOW IF STORMS HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE BAY LATE THIS
EVNG. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES...WINDS BECMNG LIGHT OVRNGHT
AND THRU MON AFTN W/ HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLNC. SCA EXPTD TO
EXP THIS EVNG W/ LITTLE RESISTANCE BY THE ENVRMNT OTHER THAN STORM
OUTFLOW IF STORMS HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE BAY LATE THIS EVNG. AFTER
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES...WINDS BECMNG LIGHT OVRNGHT AND THRU MON
AFTN W/ HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLNC.

SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL KEEP THE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR
NOW...BUT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>537.

&&

SCHOOR/LISTEMAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
021000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050-051-
WVZ050>055-501>504-021000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-
HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
319 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HYATTSVILLE             38.96N 76.95W
05/31/2008                   PRINCE GEORGES     MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE PORTION OF TELEPHONE POLE BROKE OFF AND KNOCKED
            DOWN LINES ON 42ND PL NEAR JEFFERSON AND GALLATIN ST.

&&

GMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
452 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

VAZ041-050-051-055-056-012130-
ORANGE VA-STAFFORD VA-CULPEPER VA-FAUQUIER VA-SPOTSYLVANIA VA-
452 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ORANGE...STAFFORD...CULPEPER...
FAUQUIER AND SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES...

AT 452 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES EAST OF LOIS TO NASONS...MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF STAFFORD WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.

BJL

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