Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
254 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. A WARMING TREND WILL PROCEED A COLD FRONT BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 18Z SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN VIRGINIA. A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE WASHINGTON
METRO AND A COLD FRONT IS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THUNDERSTORM BANDS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MULTIPLE HAZARDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TIME. SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT CONTINUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS NORTH. ALSO HAVE SOME CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
WILL CARRY A PRE-FIRST PERIOD WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR
LINGERING CONVECTION.

NEXT CONCERN IS FOR SYNOPTIC WINDS LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
STRONG 3 TO 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ALONG WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL
JETS HAVE COMBINED TO BRING A THREAT OF 50KT PLUS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AS WELL AS ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. THEREFORE...WILL
EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING FURTHER EAST. WILL ALSO EXPAND THE
TIMING THROUGH 09Z. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO BE ABLE TO DROP THE HEADLINE. THANKS TO NEIGHBORING
OFFICES FOR COLLABORATION.

AND FINAL CONCERN IS FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. HPC AS WELL AS BUFKIT
GIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A WIND
CONCERN FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN ONLY ONE
PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL CARRY A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
THREE ZONES. SUB ADVISORY SNOW CRITERIA FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...SO
WILL MENTION ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH FOR THE REST OF THE
ALLEGHENY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ALL LAND-BASED HAZARDS WILL BE OVER SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE WAS CLUSTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WEST...MIXING WITH RAIN UP TO
THE BLUE RIDGE...TURNING TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FROM WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSES ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS WEAK IN EVEN THE UPSLOPE AREA. THE
NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD BE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. WARMING TREND
STILL ON TRACK MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING...HOWEVER CONVECTION WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW. BUT QUICKLY END AFTER SUNSET. SYNOPTIC
WINDS THEN INCREASE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. STRONG NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY ON
SUNDAY...UP TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED.

NEXT RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES WOULD BE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN
STRONGER SYNOPTIC WINDS DEVELOP. GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL START THE GALE WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. WINDS DIMINISH ON SUNDAY BUT STILL WITHIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. STRONG NORTHWEST AND WEST WINDS DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLEVIATE TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS AND GO MORE TO BLOWOUT TIDE LEVELS
OF AROUND 1 FOOT BELOW PREDICTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ009>011-013-014-
     016>018.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ003>007-501-502.
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ036>042-050>057.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ021-025>031.
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ050>055-501>504.
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ501-503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>537.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>537.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>537.

&&

SAR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
208 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008

MDZ007-081945-
HARFORD MD-
208 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT HARFORD COUNTY...

AT 208 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF SCARBORO TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
ABINGDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMMUNITIES OF ABERDEEN AND HAVRE DE GRACE WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

PELOQUIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
231 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008

VAZ027-028-030-031-039>042-051-052-WVZ052-053-082030-
MADISON VA-CULPEPER VA-RAPPAHANNOCK VA-FAUQUIER VA-WARREN VA-
SHENANDOAH VA-CLARKE VA-LOUDOUN VA-JEFFERSON WV-BERKELEY WV-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-FREDERICK VA-
231 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MADISON...CULPEPER...
RAPPAHANNOCK...FAUQUIER...WARREN...SHENANDOAH...CLARKE...LOUDOUN...
JEFFERSON...BERKELEY...PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK AND
FREDERICK COUNTIES...

AT 231 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WINCHESTER TO MADISON COUNTY VIRGINIA
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF CULPEPER...WHITE POST...VIEWTOWN...LINDEN...
STEPHENSON...RIXEYVILLE...MILLWOOD...MARKHAM...GLENGARY AND
GERRARDSTOWN WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.

ROSA

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