Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
336 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN OHIO WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL IGNITE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
REACH THE BAY BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE - THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED...WRNGS
NOW BEING ISSUED. XPCT THIS TO CONT FOR MUCH OF THE EVE. FEELING
IS STORMS WL BE GOING FM 10 TO 50+ DBZ IN THE COURSE OF A FEW RDR
VOL SCANS. MAIN THREATS WL BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. PRESENTLY
SEEING 50 DBZ TO 40 K FT ON CELL W OF WINCHESTER. MRNG SVR
CHECKLIST SHOWED -20 DEG LN ARND 25 KFT. OBVIOUSLY CELLS THAT DO
FIRE WL HV ABILITY TO CLIMB WELL ABV THAT. JUST RCVD A REPORT OF
.75-1.0 HAIL W/ THE WINC CELL. BELIEF IS CELLS WL BE MORE ISOLD
THAN THE OUTBREAK OF LAST WEEK...AND NOT MOVG AS RAPIDLY...BUT W/
THIS MUCH THETA-E AVBL STORMS WL HV PTNL TO BECOME SVR FOR THE
NEXT 6 HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

M SUN. TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE U80S..BUT DWPTS IN L60S/U50S WL BE
WELCOME AFTR THIS LATE SPRING HEAT AND HUMIDITY BLAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...A
RETURN OF MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS SATURDAY...THEN COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS. TSTMS MAY IMPACT ALL AIRPORTS THRU AT
LEAST 00Z. NOT MOVG AS RAPIDLY AS THE MAJOR OUTBREAK OF LAST WK.
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS THO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

TSTMS COULD BE A PROBLEM THIS EVE. WIND GUSTS INXS OF 50 KT PSBL.
AFTR FRONT MOVES OFF CST WINDS SHOULD INCRS TO SCA LVLS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY CHANNEL UP THE BAY FRIDAY BRINGING WIND SPEEDS
CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA...BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA WINDS SPEEDS
WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>042-050>057.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>537.

&&

PRODUCTS...WOODY/LASORSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
111000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
315 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM THIS
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO WCNLWX /WWUS61 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEY WILL WORK THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE CITIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO WBCNPWLWX /WWUS71/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WATERS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVIATED. ANY REPORTS OF THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE
WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050-051-
WVZ050>055-501>504-111000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-
HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
315 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM. PLEASE
REFER TO WCNLWX /WWUS61 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEY WILL WORK THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE CITIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR
THE OUTLOOK AREA EXCEPT FOR THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
PLEASE REFER TO WBCNPWLWX /WWUS71/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVATED. ANY REPORTS OF THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE
WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
254 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

VAZ027-028-WVZ050-055-101945-
SHENANDOAH VA-HARDY WV-HAMPSHIRE WV-FREDERICK VA-
254 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SHENANDOAH...HARDY...HAMPSHIRE AND
FREDERICK COUNTIES...

AT 254 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
EAST OF WARDENSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 29 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF STEPHENS CITY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
305 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ACTIVATED THE
SKYWARN NETWORK DUE TO EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 10 PM. THE PRIMARY NET FREQUENCY IS 147.3 ZERO ZERO MEGA
HERTZ. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LASORSA

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
337 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

VAZ031-WVZ052-053-102000-
CLARKE VA-JEFFERSON WV-BERKELEY WV-
337 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT CLARKE...JEFFERSON AND BERKELEY
COUNTIES...

AT 337 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES
WEST OF WADESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 38 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH IN CLARKE...JEFFERSON...AND BERKELEY COUNTIES.

THE COMMUNITIES OF MIDDLEWAY...RIDGEWAY...BERRYVILLE...
INWOOD...RANSON AND CHARLES TOWN WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM.

STRONG/NWL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             1 W WINCHESTER          39.17N 78.19W
06/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       CITY OF WINCHESTER VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KLEIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
351 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

VAZ037>040-050-051-102030-
ORANGE VA-GREENE VA-MADISON VA-CULPEPER VA-RAPPAHANNOCK VA-
ALBEMARLE VA-
351 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ORANGE...GREENE...MADISON...
CULPEPER...RAPPAHANNOCK AND ALBEMARLE COUNTIES...

AT 351 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF AMICUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF MADISON...PRATTS...WOLFTOWN...STANARDSVILLE...
NEWTOWN...WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

NWL/STRONG