River Flood Warning 2, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1048 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY
DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC WILL BE TAKING OUT SOME COUNTIES OUT
OF THE TORNADO WATCH. PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS AFD...ONE LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NRN VA
SOUTH TO NERN NC WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY UP TO 45
MPH GIVEN STRONG PRES GRADIENT. EVEN THOUGH HELICITIES ARE OFF THE
CHART NO REAL GOOD INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO GROW TALL AND TAP
INTO THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. ANOTHER LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
EXTENDING SOUTH OF STAUNTON TO THE VA/NC BORDER HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING LOTS OF WIND DAMAGE ACROSS SW VA. THINK THIS LINE WILL
TEND TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. WAKEFIELDS CWA AND
THE FREDERICKSBURG AREA AT MOST RISK OF EXPERIENCING SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THIS LINE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS UP TO AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PROBLEMS. EXPECT THE RAIN TO EXIT THE AREA BY 4AM SO WILL EXPIRE
THE FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN DURING THE PAST 5 DAYS SHOWS AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS HAS BECOME
PROGRESSIVE. THE PATTERN HOWEVER IS BEGINNING TO BECOME BLOCKED
AGAIN...WITH A TROUGH-RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC...AND WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH. WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A DUAL STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH A TROUGH
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC...AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET IS DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STALLING COLD
FRONT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA...AS A 1001MB
CYCLONE BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
STRETCHED SOUTH FROM THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS IS LOCKED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE CROSSED THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY
SUNRISE. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS IN. WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE NOT TOO FAR TO
THE EAST...WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE
WELL INTO THE 50S AND NEAR 60F EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE MIDWEEK. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODEL TRACKS
ARE SPREAD BETWEEN A TRACK ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...AND A COOLER
TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST. HAVE PLAYED THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR
NOW...NOTING THAT THE MAJORITY OF SYSTEMS HAVE TENDED TO RIDE TO
THE WEST THIS YEAR.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE EUROPEAN WHICH
ADVERTISES SPLIT FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT NOTABLE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE MIDWEEK WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG PRES GRADIENT LIKELY TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 40
KTS OVERNIGHT AT AREA TERMINALS. ALSO SQUALL LINE SOUTH OF
STAUNTON TO THE VA/NC BORDER WILL POSE A THREAT FOR TSTMS PERHAPS
ISOLD SEVERE. LLWS ALSO A CONCERN UNTIL FROPA WHICH IS EXPECTED
AROUND 09Z.

09Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE IFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS
DISSIPATES THURSDAY. MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY WITH THE NEXT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z DUE STRONG SRLY WINDS WITH
FREQ GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SMALL CRAFT OR GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CBFOS WATER MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE WATER LEVELS APPROACHING
OR EXCEEDING MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT ANNAPOLIS AND BALTIMORE
WITH NEXT HIGH TIDE AT 2:46 AM AND 4:24 AM RESPECTIVELY. WILL
THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD AVDVISORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-
     013-014-501-502.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ007-011-
     014.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ021-025>031-042-
     052>054.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ050>055-501>504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>537.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>537.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...SJR
LONG TERM...SJR
AVIATION...BPP/SJR
MARINE...BPP/SJR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1057 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
051000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
1057 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEE
SEL9 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE BALTIMORE WASHINGTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. FOR MORE DETAILS CONSULT THE FLOOD WATCH
PRODUCT /WBCFFALWX/ /WGUS61 KLWX/.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND THE
MARYLAND PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TONIGHT.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
FROM ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY NORTH FOR TONIGHT.FOR MORE DETAILS
CONSULT THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY PRODUCT /WBCCFWLWX/ /WHUS41 KLWX/.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050-051-
WVZ050>055-501>504-051000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-
HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
1057 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
PLEASE SEE SEL9 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. FOR MORE DETAILS CONSULT THE FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT
/WBCFFALWX/ /WGUS61 KLWX/.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

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