Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1244 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES
WL APRCH THE AREA AGAIN THU.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CANCELLED THE FIRST WATCH FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THAT AREA...BUT THE
SEVERE TRHEAT SHOULD BE DIMINSING AND THE ORIGINIAL WATCH WAS
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 1AM. THE SECOND WATCH REMAINS IN
TACT...WITH STORMS JUST GETTING INTO LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

SECOND CONCERN FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE FOR FLOODING. STORMS
ARE NOT MOVING VERY FAST. THAT COMBINED WITH HIGH MOSITURE CONTENT
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FLOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPDATES WLL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AT 12Z...SFC LOW ATOP CWFA. BY 18Z...IT SHUD BE OVR ERN SHORE. HVYST
RAFL IN CONVEYOR BELTS ON EAST AND NORTH SIDES...WHICH WL BE ENDING
DURING THE MRNG. WL CONT PCPN THREAT THRU THE AFTN INVOF H5 TROF
AXIS. ALSO...STILL MARGINAL INSTBLY ERN SXNS...AND WL CARRY CHC
THUNDER. AREA UNDERGOING GOOD CAA TAFTN...SO MAXT MUCH LWR. SPREAD
BTWN MAV/MET SMALL...AND BLEND TAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PCPN WL BE WANING AS LOW PRES DEPARTS THE CWA. ONLY PLACE POPS WL
RMN FRI NGT AND SAT WL BE W OF THE APLCHNS. E OF THE MTNS LOOKS
DRY BOTH PDS...AND ENTIRE CWA LOOKS DRY SAT NGT AS SFC HIGH AND
UPR RDG WL BE CENTERED OVER AREA. TEMPS ARND NRML - LOWS 45-50
(XCPT CITIES AND MTNS) FRI AND SAT NGT AND MU60S (AGN COOLER W)
DURG DAY SAT.

INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AFTN AS RDG DEPARTS ALLOWING NEXT RND OF PCPN
TO APRCH THE RGN SUN NGT. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...BUT PSBLY GOING NEG TILT...SO THINK SUN NGT
COULD BE A WET ONE. DEPDNEING ON HOW THE CURRENT RAFL ENDS
UP...A FLD WTCH MAY AGAN BE NEEDED SUN NGT. SPC HAS OUR SRN CWA IN
AN OUTLOOK FOR SVR WX FOR SUNDAY. LATER SHIFTS WL HV TO MONITOR.

THE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY DEPART THE RGN...AND HV POPS IN THE FCST
RGT THRU TO MON NGT...B4 RDG RETURNS TUE AND WED. THEN ANOTHER CHC
OF RA PSBL ON THU AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE MID
ATLC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDS STILL MAINLY AT VFR...THO OCNLY DROPPING TO MVFR W/IN SHRA.
TRENDS WL DEFINITELY GO DOWNHILL AS LOPRES NEARS. LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS OVNGT IN SHRA/TSRA-- LCLLY LWR
INVOF STORMS.  MOST FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL HOLD OFF TIL AFTR 04Z.
IMPVMNT WL COME AFTR 12Z TMRW...BUT MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO
HOLD THRU MRNG.

DIMINISHED CIGS/VSBY XPCTD AT ALL TAF SITES SUN NGT...PSBLY INTO
MON MRNG PUSH.

&&

.MARINE...
WNDS HV STARTED TO SUBSIDE PAST FEW HRS. THIS WL BE THE LULL IN THE
ACTVTY. LLJ WL INCR TO 20-30 KT TNGT...AND 40-50 KT OVNGT...AS LOW
AS 1000 FT OFF WATERS. ANY SHRA CUD MIX THAT DOWN. SCA CONTS...AND
SMW PSBL TNGT.

LOPRES TRACKS ACRS WATERS...AND MIXING IMPVS TMRW IN NW FLOW. MDL
SNDGS SUGGEST 30 KT W/IN REACH. ONCE AGN...SCA CONTS.

SCA CONDS PSBL SUN NGT AND AGN MON AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE CST W/
TIGHT PRES GRAD BEHIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ONLY WATER LVLS ABV NRML RESIDE IN NRN BAY...BTWN ONE HALF FT AND 1
FT ABV. ONLY CONCERN WUD BE RISING ANOMOLIES AS LOW TRACKS OHD...
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF FOR ANY HEADLINE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>007-
     009>011-013-014-501-502.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ021-025>031-
     036>042-050>056.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050>055-
     501>504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>537.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SAR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

VAZ027-029>031-040>042-052-090300-
PAGE VA-RAPPAHANNOCK VA-FAUQUIER VA-WARREN VA-SHENANDOAH VA-CLARKE VA-
LOUDOUN VA-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
930 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT PAGE...RAPPAHANNOCK...FAUQUIER...
WARREN...SHENANDOAH...CLARKE...LOUDOUN AND PRINCE
WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK COUNTIES...

AT 930 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KINGS CROSSING...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE COMMUNITIES OF LURAY...FRONT ROYAL...HUME...DELAPLANE AND THE
PLAINS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

ROSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1121 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1039 PM     TSTM WND GST     HUME                    38.83N 78.00W
05/08/2008  U0.00 MPH        FAUQUIER           VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 TREES DOWN

&&

SAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1122 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

MDZ016-VAZ055-090345-
STAFFORD VA-CHARLES MD-
1122 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT STAFFORD AND CHARLES COUNTIES...

AT 1120 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
STAFFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 24 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. THIS STORM HAD AN EARLIER HISTORY OF STRONG ROTATION.

THE COMMUNITIES OF WIDEWATER...ARKENDALE...RISON...MARBURY....NANJEMOY
AND INDIAN HEAD WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

SMZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1141 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N FREDERICKSBURG      38.36N 77.50W
05/08/2008                   STAFFORD           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED NEAR THE
            LIMESTONE WAY SUBDIVISION.

&&

SAR

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