Wind Advisory 4, NWS Lubbock, TX

000 
WWUS74 KLUB 042144
NPWLUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008


TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042-042245-
/O.CAN.KLUB.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-080205T0000Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-COCHRAN-
HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...DIMMITT...HART...
TULIA...SILVERTON...QUITAQUE...MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...
PLAINVIEW...FLOYDADA...LOCKNEY...MORTON...LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...
SLATON...WOLFFORTH...CROSBYTON...RALLS...PLAINS...DENVER CITY...
BROWNFIELD...TAHOKA...ODONNELL...POST
344 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS CANCELED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 30 MPH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DROP FURTHER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
EVENING.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
436 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

.SHORT TERM...
MIXED LOWER LEVEL HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RATHER MILD
THIS MORNING WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S PER TTU
MESONET DATA. IN ADDITION...SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUES FROM THE HILL COUNTRY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY
AND TO SOME EXTENT THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS WILL ONCE
AGAIN INDUCE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL DEEPEN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL YIELD A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
ON THE CAPROCK. AFTER BRIEF AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...MIXING WILL GIVE WAY TO DOWNSLOPING ADIABATIC
WARMING AND DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS WITH A STRONG CHANCE
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE CAPROCK AND WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THERE. WILL
ALSO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING ALL SECTIONS
AND WILL RUN BOTH PRODUCTS FROM 18-00Z. AM SLIGHTLY CONCERNED WITH
THE TIMING OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE AND EXPECTED MIXING
POTENTIAL...WILL ADD THESE COUNTIES TO THE WARNING. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY
TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE TRENDED
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN ALL GUIDANCE AND WINDS ABOVE
GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT MOS TRENDS.

LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FIRST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND THEN GRADUALLY ACROSS THE CAPROCK LATER THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD YIELD ONLY
LIGHT PRECIP (ALL LIQUID) THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT EDGES
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH LIFT FROM THE
TROUGH MAY YIELD A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP. WILL KEEP PREVIOUS POP
STRUCTURE IN TACT WITH HIGHER CHANCES WEST AND NORTH. AT THIS
POINT...PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS EITHER LIGHT SNOW OR A
MIXTURE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN OVER CAPROCK AREAS WITH LIGHT RAIN OVER
THE ROLLING PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS ATTM. KW

.LONG TERM...
CHANCE OF PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW AND/OR RAIN...SNOW FAVORED WEST AND RAIN
EAST...AS COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO LAG PRECIP A BIT. PREVIOUS
FCST HANDLES WELL AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WX GRID.
EXPECT SOME CLEARING BY EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WILL IN TURN ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND. GUSTY N/NW WINDS EXPECTED IN THE POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TUESDAY...BUT DECREASE BY MID AFTERNOON WHEN
RH VALUES BOTTOM OUT ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES. APPEARS RED FLAG CRITERIA
WILL REMAIN OUT OF PHASE.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET BEYOND TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SUNDAY.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CNTL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BACK UPPER FLOW TOWARD WESTERLY AND
TIGHTEN THE LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENT WITH CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN COLO
OR WRN KS. MAY BE ABLE TO HIT RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS THE WRN
ZONES AS RH VALUES GET PRETTY LOW AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  28  41  18  53 /   0  30  40   0   0
TULIA         68  28  43  19  53 /   0  20  30   0   0
PLAINVIEW     69  29  46  20  51 /   0  20  30   0   0
LEVELLAND     71  30  49  21  55 /   0  20  40   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  32  49  22  56 /   0  10  30   0   0
DENVER CITY   68  32  50  23  55 /   0  20  30   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  32  50  22  55 /   0  10  30   0   0
CHILDRESS     75  37  50  24  56 /   0  20  30   0   0
SPUR          75  36  52  22  56 /   0  10  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     77  40  56  24  57 /   0  10  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

17/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2008

TXZ021>044-050015-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
614 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SUBSIDING ACROSS THE
REGION...AND NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY AND MAY POSSIBLY DEVELOP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.