Wind Advisory 22, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
544 AM CST WED DEC 3 2008

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL AREAS THIS MORNING
CLEARING BOTH TERMINALS BY 15Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS. MOST SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST WED DEC 3 2008/

SHORT TERM...
STRONG COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE REGION. AT 9Z...REGION
OF MAXIMUM SB FRONTOGENESIS WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM KSWO TO
KGCK TO KLIC THEN INTO THE DENVER METRO AREA. RESPECTABLE 3 HRLY
PRESSURE RISES ACROSS NWRN KS / SWRN NE / NERN CO OF 6 MB SUGGEST
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING GOOD SWD PROGRESS AS INDICATED IN
GUIDANCE. AM EXPECTING FROPA IN NRN ZONES AOA 13Z CLEARING THE SRN
ZONES BY 17Z.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRATUS DECK AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENCE
SUGGEST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP GENERALLY N OF A CHILDRESS TO
MORTON LINE AS MODEST VERTICAL LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AOA
600MB TO 700 MB AROUND MID-DAY.  PRECIP TYPE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO BE RA- WITH PERHAPS A SLGT CHC SN- IN THE NWRN CORNER OF THE
CWA.  WINDOW FOR PRECIP WILL BE QUITE NARROW WITH CLOUD COVERAGE
DECREASE IN THE NW STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AND WORKING ITS WAY
SEWD.

WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE BLUSTERY WITH NRLY WINDS OF
25-30 MPH GUSTING TO NEAR 45 MPH ACROSS THE NE FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.  THAT SAID...DO EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

WITH THE EXPEDITIOUS NATURE OF THE FRONT AND WITH DECOUPLING/LGT
WINDS THIS EVENING...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES REGIONWIDE
WITH EXTRA EMPHASIS IN THE NORMAL LOWER/COOLER SPOTS.  26

LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS ITERATION WAS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY ON...AND A
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD WESTERN
CANADA/AK AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE CENTER PART OF
THE NATION THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS AIRMASS...WITH CHILLY
AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH MID AND UPPER 40S FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
LOWER 50S NEAR THE STATE LINE DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW FAST THE
SURFACE RIDGE PULLS AWAY AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES.

BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL EDGE
EASTWARD WITH A MODERATING INFLUENCE ON THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PLUNGE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE...PUSHING A
WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT THROUGH...IT WILL NOT HAVE NEARLY THE SAME
PUNCH AS TODAY/S FRONT...AND HIGHS ARE ACTUALLY PROJECTED TO WARM
FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 50S OR PERHAPS LOWER 60S. THE DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST ON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CO/NM.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FORECAST AS THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A CLOSE CUTOFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CA WILL OPEN AND BE EJECTED ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IF THIS WERE TO COME
TO FRUITION IT WOULD MEAN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT
MONDAY...WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES ON TUESDAY AS THE KICKER
SYSTEM FOLLOWS IN HOT PURSUIT. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND A MAJORITY OF
ITS ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE DGEX...CANADIAN AND A MAJORITY OF ITS
ENSEMBLES ALL SUGGEST THE CUTOFF LOW WILL NOT BE PICKED UP BY THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...WITH THE BULK OF TROUGHS ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HENCE...HAVE FAVORED THIS
SOLUTION...MEANING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTER A MILD AND BREEZY/WINDY DAY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP DOWN TOWARD NORMAL BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY OR
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  20  44  21  47 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         50  20  43  17  45 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     52  22  44  21  45 /  20   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     53  25  46  19  49 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  24  44  22  47 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   57  25  47  22  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  25  46  23  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     53  23  45  22  45 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          55  25  46  23  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  25  48  20  50 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

26/23/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
457 AM CST WED DEC 3 2008

TXZ021>044-041100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
457 AM CST WED DEC 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NON PRECIPITATION

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL APPROACH...OR POSSIBLY EXCEED...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 30 MPH IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. ANY
OCCURRENCE OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.