Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.SHORT TERM...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRYLINE SHARPENING UP OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AIDING IN ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MIDDLE 60S DESPITE AFTERNOON MIXING. ABUNDANT SOLAR HEATING HAS
AIDED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF WARMING EXPECTED. LAPS ANALYSIS AT 19Z INDICATING
2400-2600 J/KG OF CAPE AND -20 OR LESS CIN.

FLOW ALOFT NOT VERY STRONG AS BEST JET ENERGY REMAINS CLOSER TO THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO. LACK OF UPPER
WAVE/IMPULSE PLACES FOCUS FOR LIFT ON THE DRYLINE.

THE THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE...WEST AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS IN
HIGH CAPE...STEEP LAPSE RATE AND LOW CIN ENVIRONMENT. DRYLINE NOT
EXPECTED TO MIX MUCH FURTHER EAST SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS WEST AND
CHANCE POPS TO NEAR I-27 IF STORMS PROPAGATE OFF COLD POOL
INTERACTIONS THIS EVENING. AREAS WEST OF A TULIA TO LITTLEFIELD TO
LEVELLAND TO PLAINS LINE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SLOWER STORM MOTION MAY ALSO YIELD LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT.

ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AROUND 06Z WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LOW CLOUDS A POSSIBILITY EARLY MONDAY BUT ENVIRONMENT NOT AS GOOD
AS THIS MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED FLOW.
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS.   KW

.LONG TERM...
A CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SLOSHING DRYLINE WILL
REMAIN ON THE CAPROCK/LLANO ESTACADO BEFORE A MODEST MIX EASTWARD
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THUS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
REMAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN FA IN PROXIMITY TO
TRIPLE POINT. MEANWHILE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER FLOW
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE...HOWEVER...THE HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS
CURRENTLY AND PROGGED IN THE WARM SECTOR SUGGEST A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL REMAIN.

RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS RELATIVELY MORE STABLE SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES
SOUTH AND A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT TAKES SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE RIDGE MAY BECOME FLATTENED
ENOUGH TO ALLOW WEAK WAVES TO PROPAGATE NORTH OF THE AREA IN NEAR
ZONAL FLOW AND THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES BY THE NEXT
WEEKEND. ATTM HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  91  57  86  54 /  50  10  10  20  20
TULIA         65  90  61  86  56 /  50  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  91  62  86  58 /  40  30  30  20  30
LEVELLAND     67  94  63  90  60 /  40  30  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       68  93  66  89  61 /  30  30  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   67  93  63  93  60 /  40  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  94  65  92  61 /  30  30  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     72  95  68  89  60 /  20  30  40  30  40
SPUR          68  93  67  91  62 /  20  30  50  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  96  71  94  64 /  10  20  30  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

17/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
342 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

TXZ021>044-262045-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
342 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR THE
WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO
STRONG CAPE AND ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SEE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KW

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