Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2008

.SHORT TERM...
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE SE TX
PNHDL WHILE WEAKENING AND THIS WILL HAVE A MAJOR INFLUENCE ON
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS DEPICTED BY SFC
ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND RADAR DATA WAS LOCATED GENERALLY
ALONG AN AMARILLO...TULIA...FLOYDADA...SPUR...TO ASPERMONT LINE AND
WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ONLY MAJOR CONCERN IS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SOUTH PLAINS WHICH HAS DRASTICALLY REDUCED SFC BASED INSTABILITY.
ALREADY GETTING NEW TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PNHDL BTW
AMARILLO AND PLAINVIEW SO THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY MIGHT NOT BE A
MAJOR PLAYER.  EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND THEN CONTINUES THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...ALREADY AIDING IN NEW
CONVECTION OVER NE NM...MOVES OVER THE REGION.

SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.  ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS
JUST A TAD AS RAIN COOLED AIR RESULTED IN COOLER MINS LAST NIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE LOCATED
BEFORE MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS FOR TOMORROW BUT DID INCREASE
POPS FOR THE 18 TO 00Z PERIOD AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY HELP TO
GET ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AND WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MCS POTENTIAL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN CONTINUED NWLY FLOW ALOFT
TEND TO FAVOR NRN ZONES ATTM. HOWEVER BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
THIS CYCLE WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED
IN THE FCST AREA FRIDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
MODELS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT STILL PROGGED TO CUT OFF OVER THE
CNTL ROCKIES/PLAINS MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME LIFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE THE FRONT PROVIDES INITIAL LOW LEVEL FOCUS FRIDAY AFTN
FOLLOWED BY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ENE. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL WITH PROGGED
PRECIPITABLE WATERS TOWARD 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE. ALL THIS POINTS
TO POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE PLAINS
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL PUT DAMPER ON HIGH
TEMP POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE A REASONABLE FIRST GUESS ATTM. SHOULD
TREND TOWARD DRIER BY MONDAY NIGHT AT THE LATEST...BUT GIVEN
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING OF UPPER LOW WILL HANG ONTO
INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  90  62  83  57 /  50  20  40  20  50
TULIA         65  91  64  84  58 /  40  20  30  20  50
PLAINVIEW     65  91  65  86  61 /  30  20  30  30  50
LEVELLAND     64  95  67  87  61 /  30  20  20  20  40
LUBBOCK       65  92  67  88  63 /  30  20  20  20  40
DENVER CITY   65  95  68  92  63 /  30  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    64  95  68  88  63 /  30  20  20  20  40
CHILDRESS     67  91  70  90  65 /  30  20  40  30  50
SPUR          68  95  69  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  50
ASPERMONT     68  97  71  93  67 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

14/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
551 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008

TXZ021>044-141100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
551 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS. THE GREATEST RISK AREA WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MULESHOE TO TULIA. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE
STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORMS CLUSTERS MAY
ENDURE WELL AFTER DARK AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT BECOME
MORE ISOLATED WITH THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACH THE SOUTH
PLAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND A THREAT
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

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