Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
408 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

.SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE PATTERN UPCOMING FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ABUNDANT PLUME OF RICH
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL FUEL THE
FIRE TODAY AS A RATHER FORMIDABLE COLD FRONT EDGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING AND THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. NAM
SOUNDINGS PROG IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES. LIFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH THE
RICH MOISTURE PROFILE...ADEQUATE CAPE AND SLOW STORM MOTION ALL
POINT TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.

THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LOCATIONS NEAR THE FRONTAL
VICINITY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD QPF AND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE HASHED OUT IN MORE DETAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES HAVE THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD WHICH DOES
INCLUDE LUBBOCK. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AND
CONTINUED THEM THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD
HIGHLIGHTS ATTM BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE HWO.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH CAPE VALUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR DOES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE SURFACE
FOCUS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. WHILE CAPE WILL BE FORMIDABLE OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST...CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY CREATE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLOSE IN ON THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER SULTRY
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 TO 105.   KW

.LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN PERMIAN
BASIN. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING AS WEAK LIFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA. DIFFICULT FCST FOR SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. IT APPEARS
THAT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
AND COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT /70S AND 80S/ LIMITING
INSTABILITY. THINKING IS THAT TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN ALONG THE FRONT. STEERING FLOW
WILL BE FROM THE NW WHICH SHOULD TAKE SOME OF THE NEW MEXICO
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...BEST PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SPLNS. WITH CONTINUED MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AND WEAK LIFT A SHOWER APPEARS POSSIBLE ALMOST ANYWHERE THOUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FRONT LOSES DEFINITION/RETREATS NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AS SFC
TROUGH DEVELOPS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE NEXT SHTWV APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTN AND SHOULD TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL TSTM
ACTIVITY...WEAK SFC RIDGING NOSING INTO WEST TEXAS SHOULD MAINTAIN
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND AID CONVERGENCE IN THE SFC TROUGH. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POP MENTION INTO TUE AS MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING
THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
THERE MAY EVEN BE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA BY FRI/SAT.
EVEN SO...THERE ARE NOT ANY STRONG SIGNALS FOR CONVECTION IN THE FA
AND WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT MOST MOUNTAIN CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
OFF TO THE WEST. THUS IN GENERAL WE CAN EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING
AND DRYING TREND BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLD MOUNTAIN STORMS MAKING
IT INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND WILL ALSO MONITOR THE FRONT/S
PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL
WARM UP BACK TO CLIMO BY THU AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  61  84  61  86 /  30  30  20  20  20
TULIA         86  62  84  63  86 /  30  50  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     88  63  84  63  86 /  40  60  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     91  63  84  65  87 /  40  60  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       92  66  84  66  87 /  40  60  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   93  65  86  66  91 /  30  60  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    95  65  85  66  89 /  40  60  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     96  67  89  68  91 /  50  60  20  20  20
SPUR          97  67  87  67  91 /  40  60  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     99  69  90  68  92 /  20  60  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

17/33/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
604 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

TXZ021>044-131115-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
604 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD INITIALLY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT. THE HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH A
SLOW STORM MOTION WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MOIST UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND A THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE
STORMS...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
208 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

TXZ028-034-035-121945-
LAMB TX-LUBBOCK TX-HOCKLEY TX-
208 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HOCKLEY...LUBBOCK AND LAMB COUNTIES...

AT 205 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN LAMB...NORTHERN HOCKLEY
...AND NORTHERN LUBBOCK COUNTIES...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

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