Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
347 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

.SHORT TERM...
INITIAL AREA OF CONCERN FOR CONVECTION IS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. NAM-WRF 500-300MB ISOTACHS IN COMBINATION WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW A 40-50KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. THIS SPEED MAX COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES RUNNING IN
THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE AND INSIGNIFICANT CIN VALUES HAS LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FISHER/STONEWALL
COUNTY LINE. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE JET STREAK
MOVES OVER VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

SECOND AREA OF CONCERN WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL
EVENINGS IS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED
WITH A BIT BETTER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
THIS EVENING THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS A COMPLEX TONIGHT. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE ADDED JET
STREAK AND BETTER PROGGED SHEAR POSES MORE OF A CONCERN FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE GFS 12Z RUN HINTED AT A LARGE COMPLEX DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION TONIGHT WHILE THE NAM-WRF WAS LESS
BULLISH. THE LATTER MODEL SOLUTION WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT WAS OVERDONE SO IT MAY BE GENERATING TOO MUCH
SUBSIDENCE. WILL TAKE A CONSENSUS AND LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS.

ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.   KW

.LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU AND FRI AND
PERHAPS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OVERALL WX PATTERN WILL
BE UNDERGOING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN HANGING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT
SW...AND PLACING WEST TEXAS IN ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLOWER AND LESS
WESTERLY MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IN
TURN SHOULD REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF EVENING CONVECTION PROPAGATING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER AT THE SAME
TIME...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH CONSIDERABLE MID-LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE AND 850-300 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS INTENSIFIES FROM SW
TEXAS THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE. THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN
SLOWER AND MORE ERRATIC STORM MOTION...WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
POSSIBLE ALMOST ANYWHERE ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE THETA-E AXIS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY HIGH-BASED AND DISORGANIZED. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRI OR EARLY SAT AND
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER
RIDGE ALSO FCST TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
FCST H7 TEMPS ONLY IN THE 10-12 DEGREE C RANGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE
SLGT POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT BY SUNDAY WITH
A RETURN TO SRLY LOW-LVL FLOW. NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR CONVECTION
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK /ALTHOUGH NOT STRONGLY/ ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING THROUGH TO THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES BRING A SHTWV THROUGH THE RIDGE BY MIDWEEK...WHICH MAY OFFER
SOME BETTER TSTM CHCS. WILL GENERALLY STICK BY MOS TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WARMEST TEMPS
EXPECTED THU/FRI AND THEN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SHOULD FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AT KLBB WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. THREAT AREA TO SHIFT EAST
INTO KCDS LATER TONIGHT WITH ALL ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.   KW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  93  66  98  66 /  70  10  20  20  20
TULIA         60  92  67  95  68 /  70  10  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     63  90  67  95  68 /  60  10  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     63  93  68  98  68 /  60  10  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       64  93  69  97  69 /  50  10  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   63  93  68 100  67 /  50  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    64  94  68  98  69 /  50  10  20  10  20
CHILDRESS     68  94  71  98  73 /  40  20  20  10  20
SPUR          64  92  70  97  71 /  40  20  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     68  92  73  97  73 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

17/33/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

TXZ021>044-251630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1127 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. WIND AND HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

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