Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
339 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST...SURFACE
TROUGH AND AXIS OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES IN PLACE
FROM THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH
TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH STORMS
PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS
EVENING. HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL AID IN HIGH BASED CONVECTION
WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATING HIGHEST CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS WITH CIN ERODING. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS FORMIDABLE AS
YESTERDAY SO AM A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THAT. STORMS COULD STILL
PROPAGATE FURTHER EAST OFF OUTFLOW AND COLD POOLS.

NAM-WRF REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH (BOTH 12 AND 18Z RUNS) ON
CONVECTIVE QPF. THE GFS 12Z RUN DEPICTED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
CONVECTION WELL AND DID HINT AT A POTENTIAL COMPLEX OF STORMS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS AT LEAST THE CAPROCK.

KEPT INTEGRITY OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CHECK AND MADE SLIGHT CHANGES
TO POP CONFIGURATION. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND
WEST OF I-27 WITH ISOLATED TO WDLY SCT STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET COULD FUEL STORMS THROUGH THE 03-06Z
PERIOD BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH AFTER 06Z.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION.   KW

.LONG TERM...
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW BUILDING OF THE UPPER
HIGH OUT OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST U.S. NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES. IT REMAIN UNCLEAR WHETHER THE POSITION AND UPPER FLOW
WILL CUT OFF THE ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
OUR LOCAL AREA...BUT DOES PUSH THE CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THE
LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH MENTIONS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  94  64  94  63 /  60  20  30  10  20
TULIA         63  94  65  93  66 /  50  20  30  10  20
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  91  66 /  50  20  30  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  95  66  94  66 /  50  20  20  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  67  94  69 /  40  20  30  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  67  94  66 /  50  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  95  66  95  66 /  50  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  97  70  98  71 /  30  20  30  10  20
SPUR          66  95  68  94  69 /  30  10  20  10  20
ASPERMONT     70  97  70  95  70 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

17/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1139 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

TXZ021>044-241645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1139 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND AFFECT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX LATER THIS EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KW