Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
350 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...
12Z WRF-NAM HAD THE RIGHT IDEA WITH WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE BEING BROKEN WHEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS ACROSS
SW KS AND NW OKLA MOVED INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE ESE AND EXPECT THEM TO ALSO SPREAD SWD
TOWARD THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE FCST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
GONE UP ON THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN NM AGAIN AND EXPECT THESE TO MAKE A
RUN FOR THE NWRN ZONES THIS EVENING. IN THE FCST AREA RADAR AND SFC
OBS SHOW TWO REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO THE W/SW OF LUBBOCK.
COULD SEE SOME INITIATION ALONG ONE OF THESE BOUNDARIES...ALTHOUGH
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CAP IS HOLDING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA. SET UP THUS FAVORS HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS THIS
EVENING...FAVORING NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. SVR POTENTIAL STILL
SEEMS DECENT...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THE BEST
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FROM THE NWRN ZONES SEWD TO THE
SERN SOUTH PLAINS.

PRECIP CHANCE TO CONTINUE AFTER 06Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS
TO ROLL SSEWD THROUGH THE ERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION ON THE CAPROCK IN A MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS AND FAVOR ERN THIRD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS. SLIGHT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE FRIDAY PENDING WHERE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES END UP.

WILL GO TOWARD THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN
EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MODERATION FRIDAY SIMILAR TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...
NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WILL STICK
CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
CONTINUES TO FAVOR SCT AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO MOVING TWD THE CWA MAINLY DURG THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS. HARD TO SAY WHICH NIGHT/AREAS ARE FAVORED
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS TIME...THERE IS SOME
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS BREAKING OUT MORE STORMS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE
SRN PLAINS. THIS WOULD TEND TO DECREASE STORM CHANCES WITH WEAKER
FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS PAST SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND...READINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPR 90S NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  88  63  88  64 /  50  20  30  30  30
TULIA         63  87  64  87  64 /  60  20  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     64  88  64  89  65 /  60  20  30  20  30
LEVELLAND     65  88  64  91  65 /  40  20  30  20  30
LUBBOCK       65  89  65  90  66 /  50  20  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   65  88  64  93  65 /  30  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    65  89  66  92  66 /  40  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     68  89  67  90  68 /  60  20  20  20  30
SPUR          67  90  67  92  67 /  60  20  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     70  91  68  93  69 /  60  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ021>044-201630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1130 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
AREAS NORTH OF A FRIONA TO LUBBOCK TO GUTHRIE LINE WILL BE FAVORED
FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.

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