Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL
06Z OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. CURRENT CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WERE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH THE
SOUTHERN MOST STORM BEGINNING TO SAG INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
ZONES /PARMER AND CASTRO COUNTIES/. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX THIS EVENING AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE ACTIVITY WILL BRING A LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND THREAT WITH IT. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES WHERE CONVECTION APPEARS
IMMINENT...WHILE MAINTAINING ALREADY LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. FEW OTHER MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS
AS THE OVERALL INTEGRITY OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
ABOVE OUTLINED EXPECTED EVOLUTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008/

SHORT TERM...
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO ERN NM WITH
RELATIVELY COOL BUT HUMID AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. EVEN WITH VEERING OF
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE MUCH LOW LEVEL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS
EVENING UNLESS POSSIBLY ALONG AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
CNTL AND NERN NM AND EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EWD INTO THE WRN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. IT IS THIS ACTIVITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE FCST AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR ALL BUT THE SWRN QUADRANT OF THE FCST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THROUGH MID-EVENING WHEN
EVOLUTION INTO MCS IS EXPECTED.

FOR WEDNESDAY...NO OBVIOUS LOW LEVEL FOCUS PROGGED IN THE MODELS.
BUT THAT COULD GO OUT THE WINDOW DEPENDING UPON RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST NO
PRECIP DURING THE DAY THINK IT PRUDENT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS GOING
UNTIL CONVINCED OTHERWISE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD CAUSE HAVOC WITH
TEMPS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD COOLER SIDE TONIGHT
BUT EXPECT BETTER RECOVERY THAN SEEN TODAY FOR THE HIGHS.

LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND...AFTER WHICH THE
UPPER HIGH MAY MOVE MORE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. WHILE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN THOUGH THAT
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW EACH NIGHT. THE CHANCES ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY ARE LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS STORMS. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS SHOW THE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER
PREVIOUS MODELS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL CLOSER TO HOME. AS
SUCH...WILL REDUCE CHANCES IN THE FORECAST SOME BUT NOT REMOVE
THEM. THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW MORE ACTIVITY LOCALLY. THEN
EXPECT REDUCED CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD MORE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  94  65  96  66 /  70  20  20  20  40
TULIA         64  92  67  95  68 /  70  20  20  20  40
PLAINVIEW     63  89  68  94  68 /  70  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     65  93  68  95  69 /  60  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       66  92  70  95  69 /  60  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  68  94  69 /  50  20  20  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  93  69  95  69 /  50  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     68  93  70  98  68 /  60  20  20  20  40
SPUR          64  92  71  99  71 /  60  20  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  93  71 100  73 /  60  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

TXZ021>044-181630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1120 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY TODAY MOVES TO THE WEST TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE
INTO SUPERCELLS WITH EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION INTO A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS INITIALLY WITH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO A LIMITED POSSIBILITY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE TOWARD DAMAGING
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS...IN PARTICULAR A POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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