Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
315 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

.SHORT TERM...
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW BETWEEN KAMA AND TULIA...A TROUGH
EXTENDING SSWWD FROM THE LOW TOWARD OLTON TO DENVER CITY WHILE
ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ESEWD TOWARD CHILDRESS. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM THE NRN TEXAS
PANHANDLE SEWD INTO WRN OKLAHOMA. ALSO OF NOTE IS UPSLOPE FLOW ONTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF CNTL AND NRN NM. TEMPERATURES NEAR 100F ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA COMBINED WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 40S
AND 50S RESULTING IN LIFTED INDICIES PUSHING -7. GIVEN THE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND WNW FLOW ALOFT
THERE A SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTN.
MODELS SUGGEST THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE AND
WRN OKLA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS...BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE TWO BOUNDARIES IN THE FCST AREA LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH CONVECTION OFF THE MOUNTAINS OR SOME OF THE
ERN PANHANDLE ACTIVITY GETTING INTO THE NERN ZONES. NOT EXCITED
ABOUT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TONIGHT...BUT POSSIBILITY EXITS. INERITED
20 TO 40 PCT POPS LOOK FINE WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT TO PREFERRED AREAS.

INVERTED-V THAT SHOWED UP ON 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WIND WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH HAIL SECONDARY AND
TORNADO POTENTIAL EXTREMELY LIMITED. WILL MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL
IN GRIDS/ZONES.

MAY HAVE A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY IN THE FCST AREA AGAIN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP OVER THE
ERN PANHANDLE AND WRN OKLA WHILE MODELS SUGGEST MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
TERRAIN TO THE NW WILL BE FAVORED. BOUNDARY POTENTIAL WILL JUSTIFY
CONTINUING THE SLIGHT CHC ATTM. TEMPS WARM ONCE AGAIN. GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL GIVEN NO SIG CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN. WILL RUN
TOWARD HIGHER FWC NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF MOSTLY
NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. CURRENTLY BELIEVE THAT
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MY BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITH
LESSER CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES ON ANY PARTICULAR
DAY ARE OFTEN TIED TO CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES FROM PRECEDING
CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  96  63  91  64 /  20  20  50  10  30
TULIA         65  92  65  90  66 /  30  20  50  10  30
PLAINVIEW     65  94  65  91  67 /  30  20  50  10  30
LEVELLAND     65  99  67  94  67 /  30  20  40  10  20
LUBBOCK       67  97  69  94  69 /  30  20  40  10  20
DENVER CITY   67  99  67  96  68 /  30  20  30  10  20
BROWNFIELD    66  99  68  95  68 /  30  20  40  10  20
CHILDRESS     70  92  71  93  70 /  40  20  50  10  30
SPUR          68  97  68  95  70 /  30  20  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     69  96  71  96  71 /  30  20  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07/04

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
536 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

TXZ024-025-162315-
BRISCOE TX-HALL TX-
536 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS BRISCOE COUNTY...

AT 532 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BRISCOE COUNTY...OR ABOUT 16 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SILVERTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STORM IS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY BUT MAY REACH WESTERN HALL COUNTY BY 6 PM.

SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.