Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.SHORT TERM...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTN INDICATES WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
TX PANHANDLE WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH/DRYLINE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS FINALLY
DEPICTING A NARROW LINE OF CU DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE NR
AMARILLO. BEHIND THE DRYLINE...VERY LOW DEWPOINTS ARE NOTED WITH
DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 70-75 DEGS ACRS THE WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE. AS TEMPS CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEG F LATER THIS
AFTN...SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS FORM INVOF TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LEVELS...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE BY 03Z WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE...POSSIBLY AIDED BY AN
OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM AN MCS DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. BOTH THE WRF/NAM AND THE GFS ARE FORECASTING THE FRONT TO
CONTINUE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THRU THE EARLY AFTN...BISECTING
THE CWFA FM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH ANOTHER
DAY OF INTENSE SFC HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS DEVELOPING BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTN HRS. STRONG INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES AOA 1500-2000 J/KG
COMBINED WITH MODEST MID LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

.LONG TERM...
THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND A MODEST LOW-LVL
JET MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MECHANISMS FOR TSTM THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT LIMITED TSTM ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO TUE
MORNING GIVEN THE PROGGED STRONG LOW-LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR....ALTHOUGH EXPECT BEST CHC FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH.

SHTWV CURRENTLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MOVE AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND EMERGE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY FROM
NE NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL OKLA BY TUE AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FCST BY MOST GUIDANCE TO FORM AT LEAST ONE MCS/SQUALL LINE WHICH
WILL PROPAGATE S-SERLY TUES NIGHT. EXCELLENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILE
AND COLD-POOL DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A DECENT THREAT OF SVR
WIND GUSTS WITH THIS FEATURE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE POTENTIAL
PATH OF THIS MCS COMING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE FATHER TO THE
WEST...SO HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST TREND OF INCREASING
COVERAGE/POPS TUES NIGHT. STRONG OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT MCS
WILL LAY OUT A BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...WHICH
SHOULD SLOWLY WASH OUT WED AFTN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ONE MORE
DAY OF UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR FOR AT
LEAST NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
WEAK FLOW BEHIND EXITING WAVE TUE WILL REDUCE TSTM CHCS BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE THEM OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW ZONES IN THE EVE
AS SOME TSTMS ROLL OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM.

BEYOND WED...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER RIDGE WILL MIGRATE
EASTWARD...BECOMING CENTERED OVER WTX BY NEXT WEEKEND. INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL TSTM ACTIVITY. TEMPS
SHOULD SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S
MOST LOCATIONS. A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE AREA FRI...MAY
BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE NE ZONES AND AN INCREASED /THOUGH STILL
LOW/ CHC OF STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  64  93  63 /  20  10  20  20  30
TULIA         67  95  65  91  65 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     66  96  67  93  65 /  20  20  20  10  30
LEVELLAND     67  98  68  97  67 /  20  20  20  10  20
LUBBOCK       72  99  70  96  69 /  20  20  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   68 100  68  99  67 /  20  20  20  10  20
BROWNFIELD    67 101  68  98  68 /  20  20  20  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  97  70  93  71 /  20  20  30  20  40
SPUR          71 101  71  97  68 /  10  20  20  10  30
ASPERMONT     73 102  73  97  71 /  10  10  20  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

21/33

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
459 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

TXZ034-035-040-041-152230-
LUBBOCK TX-HOCKLEY TX-LYNN TX-TERRY TX-
459 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS TERRY...LYNN...HOCKLEY AND LUBBOCK
COUNTIES...

AT 454 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SLIDE...OR ABOUT 15 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BROWNFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 21 MPH.

BRIEF...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.