Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
215 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...
FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. AS OF 19Z...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ROUGHLY ALONG A
HEREFORD TO AMARILLO TO CANADIAN LINE. THIS FRONT HAD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE IT
WAS STILL EDGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR RETREAT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE MAKING RENEWED PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTH OF THE
FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
ALONG THE DRYLINE. GIVEN CURRENT ML CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS. ADDITIONALLY...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR THE ND/MT/CANADA BORDERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH ITS BASE FROM
NEAR THE FOUR CORNER CURRENTLY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ SHOULD HELP THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A COMPLEX ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. A BULK OF THE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE
EASTWARD INTO OK...BUT THE TAIL END WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUILD
SSE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS /SUPPORTED BY THE PROGGED CORFIDI
VECTORS/...BRINGING WITH IT THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE PASSING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS WITH THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
DAWN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER TO DICTATE THE FINAL
NUMBERS. HAVE GONE WITH THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES WHERE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS/PRECIP EXISTS....WITH A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED THIS AFTN. PRECIP CHANCES
SHIFT SWD OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY EVENING THEN RETURN FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
THE RETURN FLOW TO YIELD A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...BUT LITTLE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP POPS VERY
LOW. DRYLINE TO SHARPEN AND SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE ERN EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK WEDNESDAY AFTN AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES ONTO THE
CNTL/NRN PLAINS AND WILL JUSTIFY KEEPING SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THE GRIDS. IWLL CONTINUE WITH GFS TIMING FOR COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THURSDAY. STRENGTH OF CAP AND QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL A BIG QUESTION AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THESE FACTORS
WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
RETURN FLOW PROGGED FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH PRELIMINARY
INDICATIONS SUGGEST GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS TIGHT AS OF LATE WHILE
CAP MAY NOT BE AS STRONG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  83  56  92  65 /  30  10  10  10  10
TULIA         60  79  57  92  67 /  40  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  80  59  90  67 /  40  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     65  84  60  95  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       68  83  62  93  70 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   69  91  62  95  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    70  85  62  95  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     69  80  60  93  71 /  50  50  10  10  10
SPUR          69  79  62  92  71 /  30  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  82  63  93  72 /  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

23/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1122 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

TXZ021>044-091630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1122 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE MAIN THREAT
AREA GENERALLY RUNS NORTH OF A LINE FROM FRIONA...TO
LITTLEFIELD...TO RALLS TO GUTHRIE. SOUTH OF THIS LINE THERE IS A
MORE ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. FARTHER
NORTH...MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT IN THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY RETREAT
NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL CAUSE SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE SEVERE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
OVERNIGHT...A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ROLLING
PLAINS...MAINLY BRINGING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
710 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             MACKENZIE RESERVOIR     34.55N 101.45W
06/08/2008  E0.88 INCH       BRISCOE            TX   PUBLIC

            ACCOMPANIED BY EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00103

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
741 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             MACKENZIE RESERVOIR     34.55N 101.45W
06/08/2008  E0.88 INCH       BRISCOE            TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00104

FB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
746 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

TXZ022-023-090115-
CASTRO TX-SWISHER TX-
746 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SWISHER AND CASTRO COUNTIES...

AT 740 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SMALL BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES WEST OF TULIA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
747 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     HAIL             AMHERST                 34.01N 102.41W
06/08/2008  E0.75 INCH       LAMB               TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00105

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
749 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             MACKENZIE RESERVOIR     34.55N 101.45W
06/08/2008  E1.00 INCH       BRISCOE            TX   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER

&&

CORRECTED EVENT...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER 00104

FB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
814 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

TXZ028-090145-
LAMB TX-
814 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LAMB COUNTY...

AT 811 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF LITTLEFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
26 MPH.

BRIEF...STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

KW