Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
220 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

.SHORT TERM...
AS OF 1830Z...COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SE NM...NEWD THROUGH LUBBOCK
COUNTY INTO CHILDRESS COUNTY. THE FRONT HAS LOST MOST MOMENTUM AS
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  THE WIND SHOULD BECOME
GENERALLY E-NERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
START TO ADVECT MOIST AIR WESTWARD. SAT/RADAR INDICATE ENHANCED CU
FIELD DEVELOPING IN CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO ALONG THE FRONT...FROM THE CENTRAL SPLNS
EASTWARD. IN THIS AREA LAPS INDICATES SBCAPES UP TO 2K WITH CINH
LESS THAN 100 AND DECREASING QUICKLY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT NEARLY NIL
AS WTX IN WEAK SWERLY FLOW REGION AROUND UPPER HIGH. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR DOES INCREASE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN PANHANDLE WITH 30
KTS INDICATED ACROSS OUR NW ZONE. THINKING IS THAT CONVERGENCE/LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM DVLPMNT WITHIN NEXT
SEVERAL HRS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF SOME STORMS WITH A FEW LIKELY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT-TYPE TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE INTENSIFICATION STAGE OF ANY TSTM UPDRAFTS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT
MINIMAL. THE NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL
GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE EASTERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING
FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER EAST...HIGH PRECIP RATES/LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FURTHER WEST...MUCH OF
THE SW PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SPLNS WILL INITIALLY BE COOLER AND
DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT...LIMITING INSTABILITY AND TSTM CHANCES. BUT
WILL STILL RETAIN POPS FURTHER WEST THOUGH AS THE UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING HRS...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS
THERE EITHER.

OTHERWISE...SE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW-LVL MOIST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WTX WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS LCL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM...WHICH WILL THEN DRIFT TOWARD THE
TX/NM BORDER BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN PLACE THURSDAY BUT CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND APPROACH THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NEW MEXICO.

BRIEF SEVERE WEATHER RESPITE APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS STOUT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE. STILL COULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AS WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT INFRINGE UPON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS
KEEP ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO LEAVE POPS BELOW MENTION.

WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED BY GFS AND ECMWF TO APPROACH THE SOUTH PLAINS
ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS...COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ATTM.

SIDED CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME MAXIMA FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER THE NORTHWEST TO
THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FROM AROUND I-27 EAST THROUGH
THE ROLLING PLAINS.   KW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  83  61  89  61 /  30  20  20  10  10
TULIA         57  81  62  91  63 /  30  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59  83  64  91  64 /  30  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  88  63  92  64 /  30  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       63  87  65  92  66 /  40  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   63  92  62  91  63 /  20  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64  91  63  92  65 /  30  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  84  67  92  69 /  60  10  10  10  10
SPUR          65  87  66  93  65 /  60  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     68  91  67  93  71 /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

33/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

TXZ021>044-281645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1135 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFT FROM THE
COLD FRONT AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY LEADING TO RAPID
GROWTH OF CONVECTIVE CELLS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOW
BECAUSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A FEW
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM A COMPLEX THIS EVENING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT DEEP MOISTURE IN THIS AREA AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY THEN MOVE INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
350 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

TXZ030-031-272115-
MOTLEY TX-FLOYD TX-
350 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN FLOYD AND WESTERN MOTLEY
COUNTIES...

AT 345 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DOUGHERTY...OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF
FLOYDADA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

BRIEF...STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

KW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

TXZ030-036-272130-
FLOYD TX-CROSBY TX-
357 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN CROSBY AND SOUTHERN FLOYD
COUNTIES...

AT 355 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CROSBY COUNTY...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH OF
FLOYDADA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

BRIEF...STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

KW