Red Flag Warning 33, NWS Lubbock, TX

000 
WWUS84 KLUB 112039
RFWLUB

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
339 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041-120200-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0033.000000T0000Z-080612T0200Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-
339 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR SUSTAINED 20 FOOT LEVEL WINDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER...OVER
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER 100
DEGREES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT. THESE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND
WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. AVOID THE USE OF OPEN
FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE SPARKS. ACCIDENTAL
IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY GROW OUT OF CONTROL.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

.SHORT TERM...
HOT...WINDY...AND DUSTY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY/S MODEST NEAR ZONAL FLOW NORTH OF A FLAT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRANSITION TOWARD FASTER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TODAY AS A POTENT NORTHERN ROCKIES UA LOW MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE PLAINS.

STRATUS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WITHIN CURRENT MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND
VICINITY LLJ. DRY/WARM DOWNSLOPE REGIME IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
AS A DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO MIX JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27/
HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR. GRIDDED WRF/NAM AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH QPF
DEPICTED OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE JUST NORTH OF THE FA. WILL
MAINTAIN A MINIMAL MENTION OF THUNDER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO GLANCING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SAID UA FEATURE. WILL WITHHOLD
MENTION OF SEVERE FROM THE HAZARD PRODUCTS GIVEN VERY LOW CONDITION
OF INITIATION.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE WIND AND HEAT. THE BEST
MSLP GRADIENTS ARE PROGGED TO TIGHTEN OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS/
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE ONLY PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH THE MIXED PBL. SUSTAINED WINDS
MAY WELL EXCEED 30+ MPH OVER THE EASTERN FA...BUT ABOVE REASONING
AND UNCERTAINTY REFLECTED IN MOS GUIDANCE PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE
OF A WIND ADVISORY ATTM. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DOWNSLOPE AND INCREASED MID LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MAXIMA SOME 10+ DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LOW TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROUNDING
BASE OF TROUGH...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE DISTURBANCES
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY
DURING THE DAY...THEN SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER HOT DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S...BEFORE CLOUD COVER AND FRONT
DROP THEM DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY. WITH FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN
MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND...AGAIN BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. THUS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF NOCTURNAL STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO ALSO MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHICH MAY PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY AT
BOTH KCDS AND KLBB TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING AT KLBB...BUT CURRENT PROGS
SUGGEST BREEZES SHOULD REMAIN JUST SHY OF SAID CRITERIA THUS.
HOWEVER... BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY TO CAUSE OBSCURATION AT KLBB
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL UPGRADE THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPAND THE HEADLINE AREA GEOGRAPHICALLY TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL
SOUTH PLAINS. WITH THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO MIX EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
27/HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR...DRY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE LLANO ESTACADO/CAPROCK BY AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS MAY ACTUALLY
BE DISPLACED EASTWARD OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WITHIN TIGHTER MSLP
GRADIENTS...BUT SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL BE AT LEAST SUFFICIENT FOR LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN 100+ DEGREE HEAT/CRITICALLY LOW RH/S AND THE
CURRENTLY DRY STATE OF FUELS OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        99  62  93  55  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         99  70  93  59  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW    100  69  96  60  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND    102  68  98  60  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK      101  71  97  64  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY  100  67  98  65  96 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD   101  68  99  64  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  72  98  69  90 /  20  20  10  20  20
SPUR         102  71  98  67  92 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT    101  72  97  68  95 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.

&&

20/08/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
416 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

TXZ021>044-120930-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
416 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FIRE WEATHER

HOT...DRY...AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN WEATHER FAVORABLE
FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.

NON PRECIPITATION

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE LIKELY. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WHICH WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.