Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS43 KLSX 051020
WSWLSX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
420 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...STRONG STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ....

ILZ095-096-MOZ018-019-026-027-052230-
/O.UPG.KLSX.WS.A.0002.080205T1800Z-080206T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLSX.WW.Y.0002.080206T0000Z-080206T1200Z/
ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-KNOX-LEWIS-SHELBY-MARION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUINCY...HANNIBAL
420 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN SNOW THIS EVENING AS
COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM IOWA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...PRIMARILY ON
UNTREATED AND RAISED SURFACES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS...SUCH AS SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND RAIN. IT ONLY TAKES A SMALL AMOUNT OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE ROADS...BRIDGES...SIDEWALKS...AND PARKING
LOTS ICY AND DANGEROUS. IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO TELL WHEN ICE
BEGINS TO FORM...SO DO NOT BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD.

$$

CARNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
306 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A LOT TO DEAL WITH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS FOR THE AREA. DENSE FOG HAS
FINALLY LIFTED AND DISSIPATED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH
REST OF AREA SEEING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS SOARING INTO THE
LOW 60S FAR NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT...COLD FRONT TO BEGIN SLIDING THROUGH CWA...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG IT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
CONCERNED ABOUT FF POTENTIAL AS WE WILL SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PCPN
OVER SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA. WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM
00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z WED...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN AUDRAIN
COUNTY MISSOURI TO MONTGOMERY COUNTY ILLINOIS LINE. ALSO...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA...WHICH
SPC HAS PUT IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH TOMORROW.

IN THE MEANTIME...COLDER SURFACE AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING IN OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
HOWEVER...WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 45 DEGREES...SO ANY ICE CRYSTALS THAT
EXIST WILL MELT IN THIS VERY WARM LAYER...SO CONCERNED ABOUT
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. THEN AS WARM LAYER IS ERODED BY TUESDAY
EVENING...THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WITH THE
COMBINATION OF ICE AND SNOW...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A SHELBYVILLE TO MOUNT STERLING LINE FROM
18Z TUESDAY TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF ICE...THEN ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON TOP OF THAT.
SOUTH OF THIS AREA TO SEE RAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING...WITH AN INCH OR LESS
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

SYSTEM TO EXIT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES AND
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE OR NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 20 POPS.

BYRD
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KS IN AN WEST-EAST ORIENTATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 INTO SRN IL EARLY THIS MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS
CONSISTING OF DENSE FOG ARE DOMINATE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE REPORTING VSBYS OF 1/4SM OR LESS. DENSE
FOG EVEN PERSISTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THRU SE MO AND SRN IL. EXPECT
KUIN WILL JOIN THE REST OF THE 1/4SM GROUP SHORTLY. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH FROPA AT KUIN AROUND 18Z AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE VSBY AND CIG HEIGHTS
SHOULD IMPROVE NOT ONLY WITH FROPA BUT ALSO WITH TIME AS THE WARM
SECTOR EXPANDS NORTHWARD. THE BIGGEST UNKNOWN WAS JUST HOW QUICKLY
TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS. BELIEVE BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES WITH KUIN AT MVFR. PRECIPITATION
WISE JUST EXPECTING SOME DRIZZLE OR LGT RAIN IN NE MO AND WEST
CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING. ADDED A PROB GROUP FOR THUNDER AT KSTL/KSUS
LATE TONIGHT AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP AND PROVIDES LIFT WELL IN ADVANCE
OF AN ENCROACHING CDFNT. THIS CDFNT SHOULD PASS THRU KUIN AROUND
09Z BRINGING A RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS.

GLASS
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-
     CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-IRON-JEFFERSON-
     LINCOLN-MADISON-MONITEAU-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-REYNOLDS-ST.
     CHARLES-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE.
     GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-SHELBY.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN
     IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
     MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-
     ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
546 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-051200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
546 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DENSE FOG...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY...
WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA BY
MIDDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE ADVISORY PRODUCT.

IN ADDITION...PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MAY DEPOSIT A THIN GLAZE OF ICE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ELSEWHERE IN THE
AREA...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THEIR COVERAGE
WILL BE SPARSE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE
IN THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT MANY AREAS ALREADY HAVE FAIRLY
SATURATED GROUND FROM THE RECENT SNOW.

THE RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE TO SNOW FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES