Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 261800
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
100 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

MOC135-261810-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-080326T1815Z/
MONITEAU MO-
100 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MONITEAU COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3834 9242 3841 9241 3842 9250 3855 9218
      3844 9216 3840 9212 3837 9219 3834 9220
      3833 9240
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 263DEG 29KT 3841 9232

$$

MOC051-261815-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-080326T1815Z/
COLE MO-
100 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN COLE COUNTY...

AT 1256 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HICKORY HILL...OR ABOUT 13 MILES
EAST OF ELDON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...ST.
THOMAS...OSAGE BEND AND WARDSVILLE.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZED HAIL. SEEK SHELTER 
NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 3834 9242 3841 9241 3842 9250 3855 9218
      3844 9216 3840 9212 3837 9219 3834 9220
      3833 9240
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 263DEG 29KT 3841 9232

$$

TILLY

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 261818
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
118 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

MOC051-261828-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-080326T1815Z/
COLE MO-
118 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN COLE COUNTY EXPIRED
AT 115 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE. 

LAT...LON 3834 9242 3841 9241 3842 9250 3855 9218
      3844 9216 3840 9212 3837 9219 3834 9220
      3833 9240
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 263DEG 29KT 3840 9232

$$

TILLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
606 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MADE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS
AND AS OF 08Z...IT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA TO SOUTHEAST
MO...JUST NORTH OF CGI...THEN WESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN MO.
THE FRONT WILL SINK A LITTLE FURTHER BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SO MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR THIS MORNING...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. SO JUST EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE NORTH OF THE
FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES OF PCPN ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I-70.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND FRONTAL POSITION...HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM MID 50S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH.

BY TONIGHT...PCPN CHANCES INCREASE EVEN MORE AS WE SEE A SIGNIFICANT
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES VEER QUICKLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...SO EXPECT PCPN TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY...LIMITING QPF AMOUNTS...THOUGH
ISOLATED INCH TO INCH AND A HALF AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF ST. LOUIS METRO AREA. WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL EXISTING DURING THIS
PERIOD...WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATED HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF)...THOUGH
CONTINUOUS WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO OCCUR...BUT WITH GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED COULD SEE AN
INCREASED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PCPN
DURING THIS PERIOD.

PCPN WILL LET UP DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BEFORE NEXT
ROUND DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
AS NEXT WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EVENTUALLY
PULLING SYSTEM AWAY FROM AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BEYOND THAT EXTENDED GRIDS LOOK GOOD WITH BRIEF BREAK IN PCPN AS
NEXT ROUND OF PCPN POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HAVE ADDED VCSH AT KCOU
THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER W CNTRL
AND SW MO. INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AT KCOU/KSTL/KSUS AND KUIN EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SHRA AND SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH CEILINGS FALLING
INITIALLY TO MVFR. DID NOT CHANGE TIMING ON TEMPO FOR SHRA BY MUCH
AND LEFT CB REMARK TO REFLECT THE SCT TSRA. SHRA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CHANCES DECREASING AFTER 03-06Z. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AND EXPECT CEILINGS TO
DROP TO IFR/LIFR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH INTERMITTENT -DZ AFTER 06Z.
WINDS WILL HAVE MAINLY AN ELY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SRN MO/SRN IL.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1008 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-271200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
1008 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT CHESTER IS CURRENTLY AT MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO THE APPROPRIATE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO DIME
SIZE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON AN ALREADY SATURATED
SOIL...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO OVERRUN THIS FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON
AN ALREADY SATURATED SOIL...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING.

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT CHESTER IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE APPROPRIATE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING OR STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS SOUTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

SIPPRELL