Severe Thunderstorm Warning 409, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 292015
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
315 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

MOC103-205-292024-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0409.000000T0000Z-080729T2015Z/
SHELBY MO-KNOX MO-
314 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR KNOX AND NORTHWESTERN SHELBY
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 315 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

LAT...LON 4031 9197 4027 9196 4010 9197 3987 9200
      3981 9229 3995 9229 3996 9231 4002 9226
      4031 9226
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 255DEG 12KT 4035 9195 4009 9196
          3992 9210

$$
BROWNING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
702 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/426 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008/
PRIMARY CONCERN FOCUSES ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS AS REMNANT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM HURRICANE DOLLY
TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
REMNANT VORTEX IS WEAK AND DIFFUSE AT ALL LEVELS...AND IS THEREFORE
DIFFICULT TO TRACK AND FORECAST MOVEMENT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS AS
EVIDENCED BY THE HUGE RAIN SHIELD THAT COVERS MOST OF KANSAS AN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS INCREASING P-WATS OVER THAT SAME
AREA ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR RUN.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM STEADILY
INCREASE P-WATS TO BETWEEN 2-2.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
MISSOURI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WITH THE ILL-DEFINED REMNANT
VORTEX OF DOLLY DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND A 20-30KT LOW LEVEL JET AIMED INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
MISSOURI BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RATHER
WET.  HPC GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO FALL OVER
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE FINGER
EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY 12Z.  CANT FIND ANY REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THAT FORECAST SO HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO 06Z HPC
GUIDANCE FOR QPF WHICH GIVES THE AREA BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL RAINS CONTINUE.  THIS SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD FIRST SHOT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK IN BUILDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  THIS SHOULD GIVE US A CHANCE TO DRY OUT...BUT ITS A HOT
PATTERN.  GOING FORECAST HAS TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  THIS ACTUALLY MAY NOT BE HOT ENOUGH...HOWEVER
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE CRANKING UP
THE TEMPS.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/647 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...PRIMARILY EXPECT VFR CONDS FOR MUCH OF THIS
FCST PD. PLAN VIEW RH PROGS AS WELL AS FCST SNDGS SUGGEST AN INCR
IN MID LVL CLDS DURG THE DAY...ALG WITH A BIT OF DIURNAL CU. AM A
BIT UNCERTAIN WHEN TO INTRODUCE PCPN...BUT BLV THAT CVG INCR WL BE
SUCH THAT PRIMARY IMPACT OF RAIN...AND SPCLY THUNDER...WITHIN 10
NMI OF AIRPORTS WL GENLY OCR AFT 06Z...AND MAINLY AT COU AND UIN.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
606 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-301115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
606 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DOLLY
WILL ALLOW THE STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE
ST. LOUIS METRO AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS

TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BETWEEN 100 AND
105 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

MODERATE FLOODING ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS EXPECTED AT CHESTER
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CARNEY