Severe Thunderstorm Warning 349, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 280757
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
258 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

MOC179-280815-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0349.000000T0000Z-080628T0815Z/
REYNOLDS MO-
258 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN REYNOLDS COUNTY...

AT 254 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR REYNOLDS...OR ABOUT 25 MILES WEST OF IRONTON...MOVING EAST AT 16
MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
CENTERVILLE...BLACK AND LESTERVILLE.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3739 9119 3741 9119 3741 9122 3750 9123
      3750 9129 3759 9126 3759 9110 3760 9106
      3760 9078 3737 9078 3737 9077 3729 9076
TIME...MOT...LOC 0758Z 283DEG 14KT 3746 9104

$$

CARNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1111 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008/
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. ONE MORE ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE MIDWEST.

MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT EAST BY SUNSET
GIVEN CURRENT SPEED OF MCV FEATURE.

SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST
AND ENTER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND APPEARS THAT THE AREA
IS IN STORE FOR ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT AS NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET VEERS
INTO MISSOURI WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. ULTIMATE
LOCATION OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL UNKNOWN BUT POINTS ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR SEEM MOST REASONABLE GIVEN SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT
AND MODEL FORECAST DYNAMICS.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH BEST CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...BEFORE ENDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
/1101 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IA ACROSS NORTHWEST MO INTO
CENTRAL KS LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MO AT THIS TIME. FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY. FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE KCOU AND STL METRO TAF
SITES TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CRITICAL HYRDOLOGIC CONDS PERSIST ALG THE MSRVR FROM STL N...AND
THE UPCOMING WET WX THRU TNGT WONT HELP. ITS A CERTAINTY THAT
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE CAUSING WATER LEVELS TO RMN
HIGH...ADDING PROLONGED STRESS TO THE ALREADY WATER-LOGGED LEVEES.
BUT...HOW THIS RAIN WL BE AFFECTING CREST FORECASTS IS SIMPLY
UNKNOWN ATTM AS ITS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT HOW MUCH AND/OR
WHERE THE RAINFALL WL BE OCRG. IN ADDITION TO THE CHGS IN CREST
FCSTS PRODUCED BY LEVEE CHGS...FCSTS WL RMN SOMEWHAT IN A STATE OF
FLUX UNTIL SAT MRNG...WHEN HYDROLOGIC MODELS HV A CHANCE TO
ACCURATELY INGEST RAINFALL AND RUNOFF.

TRUETT/TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
358 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-281200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
358 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION
CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON THURSDAY.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1200 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     HAIL             1 NE EASLEY             38.81N  92.37W
06/27/2008  E0.88 INCH       BOONE              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00609

TES