Severe Thunderstorm Warning 336, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 271818
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
114 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

ILC001-271824-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0336.000000T0000Z-080627T1845Z/
ADAMS IL-
114 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3999 9060 3997 9052 3988 9058 3975 9062
      3973 9063 3969 9064 3969 9063 3971 9091
      3993 9083 4000 9061
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 263DEG 28KT 3980 9065

$$

ILC009-149-271845-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0336.000000T0000Z-080627T1845Z/
PIKE IL-BROWN IL-
114 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN BROWN AND NORTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...

AT 110 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE AN AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN 
BROWN THROUGH NORTHEAST PIKE COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS. THE AREA OF 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE....PERRY
....CHAMBERSVILLE....AND GRIGGSVILLE. 

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3999 9060 3997 9052 3988 9058 3975 9062
      3973 9063 3969 9064 3969 9063 3971 9091
      3993 9083 4000 9061
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 263DEG 28KT 3980 9065

$$

PRZYBYLINSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1211 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008/
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. ONE MORE ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE MIDWEST.

MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT EAST BY SUNSET
GIVEN CURRENT SPEED OF MCV FEATURE.

SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST
AND ENTER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND APPEARS THAT THE AREA
IS IN STORE FOR ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT AS NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET VEERS
INTO MISSOURI WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. ULTIMATE
LOCATION OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL UNKNOWN BUT POINTS ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR SEEM MOST REASONABLE GIVEN SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT
AND MODEL FORECAST DYNAMICS.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH BEST CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...BEFORE ENDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
/644 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATORS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR AT BEST FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IN BOTH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION.
THEREFORE I HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THIS MORNINGS
GUIDANCE. GENERALLY...I THINK THAT THE ONGOING STORMS OVER THE
AREA AT THIS TIME WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 14Z...BUT
THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE WEAKENING STORMS OVER WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE BI-STATE AREA PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD COINCIDE WITH MAXIMUM
HEATING...BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. THE NEXT SHOT FOR STORMS WILL COME
DURING THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO
MISSOURI AND STORMS WILL FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AGAIN...I HAVE
LITTLE FAITH IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WHEN THESE STORMS WILL
FIRE...OR HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...MID EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST TIME FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COINCIDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...I
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE
OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

CARNEY

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CRITICAL HYRDOLOGIC CONDS PERSIST ALG THE MSRVR FROM STL N...AND
THE UPCOMING WET WX THRU TNGT WONT HELP. ITS A CERTAINTY THAT
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE CAUSING WATER LEVELS TO RMN
HIGH...ADDING PROLONGED STRESS TO THE ALREADY WATER-LOGGED LEVEES.
BUT...HOW THIS RAIN WL BE AFFECTING CREST FORECASTS IS SIMPLY
UNKNOWN ATTM AS ITS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT HOW MUCH AND/OR
WHERE THE RAINFALL WL BE OCRG. IN ADDITION TO THE CHGS IN CREST
FCSTS PRODUCED BY LEVEE CHGS...FCSTS WL RMN SOMEWHAT IN A STATE OF
FLUX UNTIL SAT MRNG...WHEN HYDROLOGIC MODELS HV A CHANCE TO
ACCURATELY INGEST RAINFALL AND RUNOFF.

TRUETT/TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
425 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-281200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
425 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH CHANCES
INCREASING HEADING INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
STORM PREDICTION CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...PRIMARILY
SOUTH AND EAST OF ST. LOUIS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN
BE SEVERE.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ST. LOUIS. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 PM     TSTM WND GST     HANNIBAL                39.71N  91.38W
06/27/2008  E50 MPH          MARION             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00573

SIPPRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1238 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 PM     HAIL             PLAINVILLE              39.78N  91.18W
06/27/2008  M0.75 INCH       ADAMS              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AND 50 MPH WIND GUSTS OBSERVED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00574

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 E LIBERTY             39.88N  90.98W
06/27/2008  E60 MPH          ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00575

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1246 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1221 PM     TORNADO          1 S HULL                39.69N  91.20W
06/27/2008                   PIKE               IL   OTHER FEDERAL

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00576

SIPPRELL