Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 050351
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
949 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

MOC113-139-219-050415-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-080205T0415Z/
WARREN MO-MONTGOMERY MO-LINCOLN MO-
949 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CST 
FOR WESTERN LINCOLN...MONTGOMERY AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 949 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OLNEY...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
TROY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  THIS STORM PRODUCED PENNY SIZED 
HAIL AT TRUXTON AT 940 PM.   

A SECOND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MONTGOMERY CITY...AND 
IT WAS ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 
INCLUDE...WHITESIDE....TRUXTON...DAVIS...AND BELLFLOWER.

LAT...LON 3922 9099 3901 9088 3883 9152 3899 9161
TIME...MOT...LOC 0349Z 244DEG 48KT 3907 9111

$$

TRUETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
620 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A LOT TO DEAL WITH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS FOR THE AREA. DENSE FOG HAS
FINALLY LIFTED AND DISSIPATED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH
REST OF AREA SEEING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS SOARING INTO THE
LOW 60S FAR NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT...COLD FRONT TO BEGIN SLIDING THROUGH CWA...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG IT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
CONCERNED ABOUT FF POTENTIAL AS WE WILL SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PCPN
OVER SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA. WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM
00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z WED...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN AUDRAIN
COUNTY MISSOURI TO MONTGOMERY COUNTY ILLINOIS LINE. ALSO...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA...WHICH
SPC HAS PUT IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH TOMORROW.

IN THE MEANTIME...COLDER SURFACE AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING IN OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
HOWEVER...WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 45 DEGREES...SO ANY ICE CRYSTALS THAT
EXIST WILL MELT IN THIS VERY WARM LAYER...SO CONCERNED ABOUT
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. THEN AS WARM LAYER IS ERODED BY TUESDAY
EVENING...THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WITH THE
COMBINATION OF ICE AND SNOW...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A SHELBYVILLE TO MOUNT STERLING LINE FROM
18Z TUESDAY TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF ICE...THEN ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON TOP OF THAT.
SOUTH OF THIS AREA TO SEE RAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING...WITH AN INCH OR LESS
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

SYSTEM TO EXIT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES AND
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE OR NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 20 POPS.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...FNT EXTDS FM NR UIN SW TO JUST N OF COU ATTM.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WERE DVLPG ALONG THIS FNT. THIS FNT WILL SAG SEWD
THRU UIN THIS EVNG...THEN THRU COU BY 06Z TUE AND THRU STL/SUS
ARND 09-11Z. A LINE OR BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE THRU THE TAF
SITES TGT ALONG THIS SEWD MOVG CDFNT. AFTER FROPA THE SFC WND WILL
VEER ARND TO A NWLY DIRECTION WITH STRATUS AND FOG ADVCTG SEWD
INTO THE TAF SITES BHND THE FNT. CIG HGTS WILL DROP DOWN TO ARND
300-500FT WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO 1-2SM IN FOG BHND THE FNT. THERE
SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN FRI MRNG BFR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OR
SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TUE AFTN AHD OF A SFC WV WHICH
WILL DVLP ALONG THE FNT AND MOVE NEWD THRU SERN MO TUE AFTN INTO
TUE EVNG.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-
     CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-IRON-JEFFERSON-
     LINCOLN-MADISON-MONITEAU-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-REYNOLDS-ST.
     CHARLES-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE.
     GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-SHELBY.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN
     IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
     MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-
     ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
352 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

ILZ095-096-MOZ018-019-026-027-051215-
ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-KNOX-LEWIS-SHELBY-MARION-
352 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 12 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN
POSSIBLY TURNING TO FREEZING RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL
TURN THE FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND SOME OF
THIS SNOW MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS THAT
OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-097>102-MOZ034>036-041-042-
047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-051215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-PIKE IL-CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-
MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-
MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-
ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-
WASHINGTON-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
352 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAIN. LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BECOME A PROBLEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. IN ADDITION...ANY OF THE STORMS ON TUESDAY
COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND.

THE RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE TO SNOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME OF
THE SNOW LINGERING OVER ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TRUETT