Severe Thunderstorm Warning 329, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 260601
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
100 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

ILC001-009-MOC103-111-260645-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0329.000000T0000Z-080626T0645Z/
BROWN IL-ADAMS IL-LEWIS MO-KNOX MO-
100 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT
FOR KNOX...LEWIS...NORTHERN ADAMS AND NORTHERN BROWN COUNTIES...

AT 1254 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF RIPLEY TO
LA GRANGE TO HURDLAND...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF RUSHVILLE TO CANTON TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EDINA...
MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE...MOUND
STATION...COLUMBUS...CLAYTON...STEFFENVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...
KELLERVILLE...BUCKHORN AND COOPERTOWN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65 MPH WERE REPORTED IN URSA WITH THIS STORM. 
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM...SEEK SAFE SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM 
WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4026 9194 4026 9153 4025 9150 4020 9150
      4020 9093 4011 9091 4010 9070 4005 9068
      4003 9062 3991 9058 3997 9232 4004 9236
      4030 9236 4031 9196
TIME...MOT...LOC 0600Z 349DEG 44KT 4011 9073 4000 9148
          4001 9227

$$

GKS

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 260648
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
148 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

ILC001-009-MOC103-111-260658-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0329.000000T0000Z-080626T0645Z/
BROWN IL-ADAMS IL-LEWIS MO-KNOX MO-
148 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR KNOX...LEWIS...NORTHERN ADAMS
AND NORTHERN BROWN COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 145 AM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM.

LAT...LON 4026 9194 4026 9153 4025 9150 4020 9150
      4020 9093 4011 9091 4010 9070 4005 9068
      4003 9062 3991 9058 3997 9232 4004 9236
      4030 9236 4031 9196
TIME...MOT...LOC 0601Z 349DEG 44KT 4010 9073 3999 9148
          4000 9227

$$

GKS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1058 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/236 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/
QUITE A BUSY DAY AROUND HERE...AS LAST NIGHTS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
SENT FORECAST CRESTS ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HIGHER AND LATER.

MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS HAS STALLED FROM
NORTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH THE ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA EAST TO
NEAR EFFINGHAM...ILLINOIS. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF CAP. BUT WIDESPREAD...ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY DUE
TO THE LACK OF FORCING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. MAYBE JUST A TAD FURTHER
NORTH THAN LAST NIGHT (AT LEAST I HOPE). SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR
INITIATION AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS THIS AREA. THE NAM
SOLUTION SEEMS MOST REASONABLE...AND FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI COUNTIES AND ADDED HEAVY
RAINFALL WORDING. WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT WATCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST...AND PLACE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WERE THEY
ARE NEEDED.

TONIGHTS MCS SHOULD FOLLOW SAME SUIT AS TODAY...DIMINISHING DURING
THE MORNING...BUT LEAVING AN OUTFLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY.

MAIN ZONE OF CONVECTION SHOULD FOCUS FURTHER NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...BUT STILL OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN. SPC HAS
MOST OF THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THE DAY3 OUTLOOK
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...DRAGGING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT FOR THIS NEXT BOUT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY KEPT POPS NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
POPS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ECWMF AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH 500MB FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP
500MB LOW WILL PINWHEEL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY KEEPING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY A DIURNAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH LOW TO MID 80S COMMON.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT ECWMF SUGGESTS WARM ADVECTION AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS A
TRAIN OF SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO AFFECT THE MIDWEST. IF THIS
PATTERN SETS UP...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MCS DEVELOPMENT
WOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE GOOD NEWS FOR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
/1033 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WRMFNT HAS PUSHED N OF THE TAF SITES SO S-SWLY
SFC WNDS WL CONT THIS TAF FSCT PD. MCS HAS DVLPD OVER ERN IA AND
THIS SHOULD MOVE E-SEWD GRAZING NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL LT TGT. MAY
INCLUDE VCTS IN UIN AFTER 07Z THU AS TSRA MAY GET CLOSE TO THE
AIRPORT AS THEY CONT TO MOVE AND DVLP E-SEWD WITH TIME. WILL
PROBABLY GO SKC IN COU..STL AND SUS LT TGT AS EVEN HI LVL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THESE SITES. FEW-
SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DVLP BY LT THU MRNG. MAY BE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG TSRA OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM LT NGT AND EARLY
MRNG CONVECTION BUT WILL LEAVE TAFS DRY FOR NOW ON THU AS
THE PROBABILITY OF TSRA AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES LOOKS LOW.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LINCOLN.

IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
322 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-261200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
322 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND AFFECT
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IF THIS
HAPPENS.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CVKING