Severe Thunderstorm Warning 323, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 241528
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1028 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

MOC019-027-051-135-241538-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0323.000000T0000Z-080624T1530Z/
COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-CALLAWAY MO-BOONE MO-
1028 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BOONE...WESTERN CALLAWAY...
NORTHEASTERN MONITEAU AND NORTHEASTERN COLE COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 1030
AM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

LAT...LON 3918 9247 3909 9211 3907 9211 3907 9202
      3903 9185 3849 9207 3880 9257 3891 9251
      3893 9251 3897 9257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1528Z 307DEG 30KT 3874 9211

$$

TES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
652 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/324 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008/
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TRYING
TO NAIL DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE
SUMMER-LIKE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WEVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS IS DEVELOPING AN MCV WHICH
SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING MORE HUMIDITY BACK TO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT SCATTERED
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BI-STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV...AND NAM IS DEVELOPING SOME
DECENT MUCAPE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NSSL AND SPC 4KM WRF MODELS ALSO
BREAK PRECIP OUT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
IT SOUTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ITS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THIS IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH IS ONGOING OVER
WESTERN MISSOURI AT THIS TIME...OR IF ITS ASSOCIATED MORE WITH
THE APPROACHING MCV AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. REGARDLESS...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP MID-HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY...FADING DOWN TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS.

HAVE KEPT 30-40 POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO STAY CLOSER TO GREATER
BAROCLINICITY/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AT
NIGHT...AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OR IOWA DUE TO
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
THERE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED AS WELL...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA
WARMS UP INTO THE 90S BY TOMORROW. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS RELATIVELY
MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL STICK WITH US AT LEAST UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE AREA COOLER TEMPS BACK IN THE 80S AND LOWER
HUMIDITY.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/637 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY
WITH THE MCS FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOME
RATHER INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL OCCURING IN NW MO AND THE
QUESTION IS IF THESE WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST AND IF
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS SOUTH
OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GET QUITE UNSTABLE TODAY WITH HEATING
AND THIS AIR WILL BE FEEDING THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER...SO MY
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION WILL PUSH ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL
IMPACT KUIN THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT VIA THE BROAD SWLY LLJ WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED FROM IA INTO NE MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL TONIGHT
SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME. I THINK THE BEST PROBABILITY WILL BE OVERNIGHT AND THUS
ADDED A PROB GROUP FOR KUIN.  FUTHER SOUTH THERE IS ALOT MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BOTH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
COVERAGE. ATTM OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY STORMS GIVEN THESE
CAVEATS AND HAVE PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LINCOLN.

IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
613 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-251115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
613 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS COULD BE
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
IF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CARNEY