Severe Thunderstorm Warning 318, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
549 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/414 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008/

SEVERAL CHANCES FOR TSRA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ANOTHER LO
PRES TROF SWINGING THRU THE FA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR NEW TSRA DEVELOPMENT...AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR TWO...AND IS ALSO TAKING ADVANTAGE OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS DESPITE RATHER MARGINAL MOISTURE AT THE LO LEVELS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SEWD INTO THE NRN/NERN FA THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. FURTHER S...OLD BOUNDARY OVER I-70 FROM MORNING
TSRA/SHRA HAS DEVELOPED A LONE CELL OVER FRANKLIN COUNTY AND THIS
SHOULD ALSO SPAWN A FEW MORE TSRA HEADING INTO THE EVENING AS SOME
OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WORK THEIR WAY FURTHER S AND INTERACT
WITH SOME OF THE BETTER MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO
DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.

A RARE DRY DAY CWA-WIDE ON MONDAY WITH SFC HI PRES IN CONTROL...NO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO DEAL WITH FOR A CHANGE...AND DRY AIR ALL
AROUND.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ALREADY
CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA...AT LEAST ALOFT...BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SUFFICIENT LEVELS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THRU TO RESULT IN SCT ELEVATED
TSRA. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
CONSENSUS WAS TO FAVOR THE FASTER SOLUTIONS BRINGING IT THRU MUCH OF
THE FA...BUT WITH A BIT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE WRN/CNTRL FA DURING THE
DAY...AND THEN AS THINGS CARRY INTO THE NIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL BE
MORE ON THE ERN FA.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...MODELS REMAIN
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON OUR LENGTHY PERIOD OF NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING...WHICH IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS ARE
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OR DISTURBANCES
TRICKLING SEWD IN THIS FLOW THRU THE AREA THRU FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...
S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE...SO TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME...WITH A
CDFNT APPROACHING THE NRN FA ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...BUT A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR S THIS FRONT WILL PENETRATE BEYOND
SATURDAY. TRADITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOWS FRONTS
GO TO DIE ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER AND RARELY PENETRATE THRU THE FA...
AND WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO DISAGREE ON THIS POINT WITH
SOME PUSHING IT DEEPER INTO MO AND SRN IL...GIVEN HOW FAR OUT WE ARE
TALKING...PREFER TO LEAN ON LEAVING IT A BIT FARTHER N THAN WHERE
SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS ARE TAKING IT. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE...AS A RESULT...AOA NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
/525 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCT TSRA ACRS NERN MO W CNTRL IL ALONG WK
CDFNT/SFC TROF EXTDG FM WK SFC LOW OVER NERN IL SW THRU NERN MO.
THIS TSRA ACTIVITY WAS MOVG SEWD. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS SHOULD WKN
BY SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG MAY NEED TO INCLUDE AT LEAST
VCTS IN STL AND SUS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. THESE SCT TSRA
SHOULD REMAIN BOTH E OF COU AND S OF UIN THIS EVNG AS SHRTWV TROF
AND ASSOCIATED WK CDFNT/SFC TROF CONTS MOVG SEWD. THE CUMULUS
FIELD WILL DISSIPATE LTR THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG WITH A
CLR SKY FM LT EVNG THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS EXPECTED. W-SWLY SFC
WNDS WL BCM LGT LTR THIS EVNG. SFC WNDS WL BE N-NWLY ON MON WITH
SFC HI CNTR OVER THE NRN PLAINS MOVING SLOWLY E-SEWD THRU THE GRT
LKS REGION. ONLY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED LT MON
MRNG AND AFTN.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
425 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-231200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
425 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND DAMAGING
WINDS TO 65 MPH. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE WATCHES...
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
514 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             3 NE RICHWOODS          38.20N  90.79W
06/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00520

SIPPRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
519 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             GRIGGSVILLE             39.71N  90.73W
06/22/2008  E1.00 INCH       PIKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00521

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
530 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             3 NE RICHWOODS          38.20N  90.79W
06/22/2008  E1.25 INCH       WASHINGTON         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00522

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
532 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             GRIGGSVILLE             39.71N  90.73W
06/22/2008  E1.25 INCH       PIKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00523

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
535 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HAIL             PALMYRA                 39.80N  91.52W
06/22/2008  E0.88 INCH       MARION             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00524

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
542 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             PALMYRA                 39.80N  91.52W
06/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       MARION             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00525

TES