Severe Thunderstorm Warning 299, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 161017
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
516 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

MOC135-161026-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0299.000000T0000Z-080616T1045Z/
MONITEAU MO-
516 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONITEAU COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE STORM HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE COUNTY.


LAT...LON 3868 9241 3861 9221 3858 9217 3854 9205
      3846 9211 3847 9217 3844 9216 3842 9214
      3834 9221 3841 9237 3842 9241 3846 9249
TIME...MOT...LOC 1016Z 314DEG 37KT 3849 9235

$$

MOC051-161045-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0299.000000T0000Z-080616T1045Z/
COLE MO-
516 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 AM CDT
FOR COLE COUNTY...

AT 514 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR LOHMAN...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JEFFERSON CITY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 43 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
INCLUDE...BRAZITO...WARDSVILLE AND ST. THOMAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3868 9241 3861 9221 3858 9217 3854 9205
      3846 9211 3847 9217 3844 9216 3842 9214
      3834 9221 3841 9237 3842 9241 3846 9249
TIME...MOT...LOC 1016Z 314DEG 37KT 3849 9235

$$

GKS

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 161047
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
547 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

MOC051-161057-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0299.000000T0000Z-080616T1045Z/
COLE MO-
547 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR COLE COUNTY EXPIRES AT 545 AM
CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVED 
SOUTHEAST OF THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3868 9241 3861 9221 3858 9217 3854 9205
      3846 9211 3847 9217 3844 9216 3842 9214
      3834 9221 3841 9237 3842 9241 3846 9249
TIME...MOT...LOC 1017Z 314DEG 37KT 3848 9234

$$

GKS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1122 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.UPDATE...
/1013 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008/

ELEVATED TSRA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THRU THE FA...AND SHOULD
LARGELY STICK TO THE CNTRL/E CNTRL/SERN MO PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
IT ALSO SLOWLY WEAKENS IN INTENSITY. LONE SVR STORM IS TRYING TO
BUCK THIS TREND BACK IN NWRN MO...HOWEVER.

HAVE ADDED FOG TO AREAS OF THE FA S AND E OF KSTL...WHERE CDFNT
WITH ITS DRIER AIR WILL BE THE LONGEST IN GETTING TO AND WHERE IT
ALSO HAD THE HEAVIEST RAFL AMNTS. QUESTION OF CURRENT LO DEWPOINTS
AND CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE THINGS UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO ONLY GO
PATCHY COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RECOVER SOME LATER
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS LESSEN LATE TONIGHT THOUGH.

EXTENDED THE POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
WELL WITH NEW MODEL GUIDANCE CONFIRMING THE PREVIOUS RUNS IN
KEEPING MOISTURE IN THE FAR SRN FA JUST A BIT LONGER TO PERHAPS
TOUCH OFF SOME CONVECTION.

TES
&&

.DISCUSSION...
/340 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008/

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO QUITE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. PROBLEM IS THAT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS NOT SEASONABLY HIGH AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
RATHER HIGH LCLS/LFCS IN OUR AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MCS GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAVE LEAD TO
PROBLEMS SUSTAINING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IN OUR CWA. I SUSPECT WE
WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THRU
EARLY EVENING AS THE OUTFLOW PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL/SE MO AND SW IL...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EVEN LESS
IN THIS REGION. ONE RESULT OF THIS DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER IS GOOD
SUBCLOUD EVAPORATION AND GUSTY WINDS...AND THE OUTFLOW ALONE HAS
BEEN PRODUCING GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR SO. MOST ACTIVE AND SEVERE
PORTION OF THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SW MO WHERE A
BETTER QUALITY AIR MASS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS. THE
ACTUAL CDFNT STILL REMAINS LOCATED FROM IA THRU SW NEBRASKA AND
ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF IT AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS ACROSS NW MO. NOT SURE OF THE LONGEVITY BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH DECENT CHANCE POPS UNTIL THE FROPA GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND THESE ONGOING UPSTREAM STORMS.

THE CDFNT SHOULD BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA ON
MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE RETAINED SOME LOW POPS BECAUSE OF THIS.
OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY AND
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTER SWD ACROSS THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE
CDFNT.

NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO THEN DOMINATE THE MID
MS VLY REGION UNTIL EARLY THURS BRINGING TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER
AND SLIGHTLY BLO AVERAGE TEMPS. MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.

BEGINNING THURSDAY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A WARY EYE ON NW FLOW
SHRTWVS AS THE SHUNTED BAROCLINIC ZONE TRIES TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
WRN MO AND MOISTURE BEGINS A RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE ANTICYCLONE.
PRESENTLY JUST ADDED SOME SLGT CHANCE POPS IN THE THURS NIGHT-FRI
PERIOD. SUMMER HEAT COULD DEVELOP IN ERNEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IF THE ECMWF 240H PROG IS ON TRACK.

GLASS
&&

.AVIATION...
/1121 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REFIRED OVER
CENTRAL MO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SO KEPT VCTS IN KCOU THROUGH AT
LEAST 08Z AND VCSH IN KSTL/KSUS TIL 09Z. CIGS/VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AROUND 10Z TO 12Z FOR ALL TAF SITES...WITH A FEW CU
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.

BYRD
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LATEST CREST FORECASTS ISSUED TODAY REFLECT VARIOUS LEVEE
BREAKS UPSTREAM. THEREFORE...CRESTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM CANTON
TO LOUISIANA TO REFLECT THIS. SAVERTON AND CLARKSVILLE STILL HAVE
A CREST FORECAST THAT WOULD BE ABOVE THE HISTORICAL RECORD CREST
FROM AUGUST OF 1993. POINTS SOUTH OF THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI RIVERS HAVE ALL BEEN LOWERED A FEW TENTHS OF
A FOOT...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CREST IN THE MODERATE OR MAJOR
CATEGORY. THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL CREST AGAIN THIS WEEK AT SIMILAR
LEVELS AS THE CREST FROM LAST WEEK. ALL POINTS ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER
HAVE HAD THE CREST FORECAST RAISED WITH MEREDOSIA NOW FORECAST TO GO
INTO MAJOR FLOOD ALONG WITH HARDIN.
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1155 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-161200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
1155 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...MISSOURI...AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE
FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE
FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
448 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 AM     HAIL             4 ENE GERALD            38.42N  91.26W
06/16/2008  E0.70 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00481

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
450 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     HAIL             ROSEBUD                 38.39N  91.40W
06/16/2008  E0.25 INCH       GASCONADE          MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ESTIMATED OVER .8 OF RAIN IN 10 TO 15 MINUTE PERIOD

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00482

TRUETT