Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 061838
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
138 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

MOC055-071-099-221-061900-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0281.000000T0000Z-080606T1900Z/
WASHINGTON MO-CRAWFORD MO-JEFFERSON MO-FRANKLIN MO-
138 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...WESTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD
AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 135 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR PARKWAY...OR ABOUT NEAR ST. CLAIR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
MOSELLE...LONEDELL...GRUBVILLE...ROBERTSVILLE...CATAWISSA...OERMANN
AND DITTMER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA UNTIL 7 PM 
CDT. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF 
SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR 
ROOM.

LAT...LON 3828 9117 3852 9080 3823 9062 3812 9113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 243DEG 31KT 3831 9099

$$

TES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
638 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/315 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008/
DEALING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...
WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF
QUINCY TO SPRINGFIELD...IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

BOTH 00Z NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO WASH OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...BUT KEEP VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH BROAD CONFLUENT FLOW WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY AS ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AHEAD OF THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY.
HAVE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...SO SPC HAS DOWNGRADED
MODERATE RISK TO SLIGHT RISK FOR ENTIRE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL
SEE HIGHER POPS SHIFT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OVER CWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE WEST DUE
TO RAIN AND CLOUDS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S WHILE FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS COULD REACH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

BY TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA...THEN
IT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY AS POSSIBLE WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH REGION...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN HALF OF
CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH REST OF FORECAST PERIOD...BOUNDARY TO
REMAIN NEARBY WITH SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASING
OUR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION...
/637 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008/ FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY PAST 2 HOURS.
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MO AT
THIS TIME WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TPS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
101 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-071215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
101 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAT MISSOURI.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TRUETT