Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 022305
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
605 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

MOC127-137-173-205-022330-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-080602T2330Z/
MONROE MO-RALLS MO-MARION MO-SHELBY MO-
605 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN SHELBY...SOUTHWESTERN MARION...RALLS AND NORTHEASTERN
MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 601 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL 3 MILES SOUTH OF SHELBINA IN 
MONROE COUNTY. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF 
SHELBINA...MOVING EAST AT 47 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
STOUTSVILLE...INDIAN CREEK...MONROE CITY...FLORIDA...THE LANDING...
CENTER...PERRY AND SPAULDING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3980 9220 3965 9136 3933 9153 3933 9169
      3960 9231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 290DEG 40KT 3960 9194

$$

CARNEY

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 022324
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
624 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

MOC127-205-022334-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-080602T2330Z/
MARION MO-SHELBY MO-
624 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN SHELBY AND
SOUTHWESTERN MARION COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.

LAT...LON 3965 9136 3933 9153 3933 9169 3955 9184
      3966 9172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 288DEG 42KT 3953 9165

$$

MOC137-173-022330-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-080602T2330Z/
MONROE MO-RALLS MO-
624 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR RALLS AND NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 619 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR THE LANDING...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF MONROE CITY...
MOVING EAST AT 48 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...CENTER
AND SPAULDING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3965 9136 3933 9153 3933 9169 3955 9184
      3966 9172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 288DEG 42KT 3953 9165

$$

CARNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
243 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/242 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, SURFACE
WARM FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST MO INTO
EASTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT AS MCS PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO NORTH MO EARLY ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

850 MB MOISTURE WAS POOLED FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO THIS
MORNING. THE VARIOUS MODELS VERIFIED FAIRLY CLOSE WITH WIND AND
MOISTURE FIELDS. MCS DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST MO.
DENSE BLOWOFF CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL MO AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED INTO NORTH MO TONIGHT BY THE VARIOUS MODELS.
EXPECT MCS TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
EVENING AND THEN SAG SOUTHEASTWARD.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN VERY SIMILAR PAST FEW DAYS IN
FORECASTING A DEEP UPPER TROF/CLOSED LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN AND STILL IS STRONGER AND DEEPER
WITH SYSTEM WITH THE H5 LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT, DEEP SURFACE LOW FOR EARLY JUNE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS KS ON THURSDAY. WITH STRONG DYNAMICS FORECAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM, EXPECT STRONG SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST MO THURSDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

BOTH MODELS THEN BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS A RESULT.

TPS
&&

.AVIATION...
/1239 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MCS OVER ERN KS AND WRN MO IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS ERN MO. UIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE EWD ALONG THE WARMFRONT. ATMO ACROSS
CENTRAL...ERN AND SERN MO HAS DESTABILIZED THIS MORNING. EXPECT
TSRA TO REMAIN S AND E OF THE SUS...STL AREA. TSRA...SHRA ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COU FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION
TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF STL...SUS AND COU. HOWEVER...
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CONVECTION MAY PROPAGATE FURTHER S THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW TODAYS
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT TONIGHTS...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
MENTIONING TSRA FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
315 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
315 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION TONIGHT. THE MOSTLY LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ARE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING...AND THEN OVER
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NORTHWEST OF I-44
IN MISSOURI AND I-70 IN ILLINOIS.

THERE IS A RISK OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS A STRONG LATE SPRING STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF EAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1