Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS St. Louis, MO

January 8, 2008Fayette County, Marion County, Illinois

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jan 8, 2008, 3:45 AM CST for Fayette County, Marion County, Illinois. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 8, 2008, 3:45 AM CST (09:45 UTC)
Expired: Jan 8, 2008, 4:15 AM CST
In force: 30 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Fayette County, IL, Marion County, IL

The radar

The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jan 7, 7:48 PM CST	Tornado Watch PDS	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 655 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -29 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 746 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 317 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 343 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.3
Supercell composite: 4.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KLSX 080946
SVRLSX
ILC051-121-081015-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0018.080108T0945Z-080108T1015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
345 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
  NORTHERN MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 415 AM CST

* AT 343 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
  HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF VANDALIA TO    
  3 MILES NORTH OF SHOBONIER TO PATOKA TO 6 MILES WEST OF FAIRMAN    
  AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BROWNSTOWN...
  ST. ELMO...
  KINMUNDY...
  WRIGHTS CORNER...
  FARINA...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3864 8914 3873 8914 3874 8915 3875 8921
      3887 8921 3904 8926 3916 8926 3922 8882
      3893 8880 3892 8869 3884 8869
TIME...MOT...LOC 0945Z 240DEG 61KT 3902 8913 3893 8907
          3879 8908 3868 8917

$$

CARNEY

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 081016
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
416 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

ILC051-121-081026-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-080108T1015Z/
MARION IL-FAYETTE IL-
416 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FAYETTE AND NORTHERN MARION 
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO WATCH 
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM.

LAT...LON 3864 8914 3873 8914 3874 8915 3875 8921
      3887 8921 3904 8926 3916 8926 3922 8882
      3893 8880 3892 8869 3884 8869
TIME...MOT...LOC 0945Z 240DEG 61KT 3901 8912 3892 8906
          3878 8907 3867 8917

$$

CARNEY

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jan 7, 11:00 PM CST, 4 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 7, 11:00 PM CST, 4 hours 45 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1100 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
BUSY JANUARY SEVERE WEATHER DAY WITH TORNADO WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT
FOR NWRN THIRD OF THE CWA.  MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH HOW SEVERE
TRENDS WILL EVOLVE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT.  FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON THE GFS WHICH HAS
BETTER SUPPORT OF THE OTHER MODELS...THOUGH DID DISCOUNT ITS QPF
AND MASS FIELDS THAT ARE OVERDONE BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS TYPICAL OF DEEP COOL SEASON EVENTS
WITH CURRENT MUCAPES IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS RANGING UP TO 1000
J/KG THAT IS PROGGED WHICH WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG THROUGH
12Z.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 60-80KS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
OFFSET WEAK THERMODYNAMICS TO KEEP SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT WITH CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING 65 DBZ CORES REACHING 15K FT.  0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF
20-40KT INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WITH ANY SURFACE
BASED STORM THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ALSO HAVE CONCERNS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. CONSIDERED ISSUING A
FLOOD WATCH...BUT HOLDING OFF BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY DRY
SOIL MOISTURE. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER INTO THE REGION...AND THERE WILL
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF LOW LEVEL
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECASTS AND THE HWO.

COLD FRONT WILL NOT CLEAR THE ERN PART OF THE CWA UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.  THERE WILL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BRINGING AND CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

IN THE EXTENDED (THURSDAY NIGHT-NEXT MONDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY AMPILFYING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ONLY SHOW SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN SHORTWAVES.   THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT STRENGTHENING OF SFC LOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.  WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE ECWMF BASED ON ITS CONTNUITY FOR THIS FORECAST.  WITH
THIS SAID...WILL KEEP CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MIDWEEK TROUGH EXITS AREA.  ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
OTHER MODELS WITH A TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...SO HAVE CHC OF RAIN OR SNOW GOING OVER THE
SRN AND ERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  ECWMF SHOWS ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...BUT DOESNT LOOK LIKE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES.  TEMPERATURES ARE BASED
ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE...HPC GUIDANCE AND ECWMF.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL IA ACROSS NORTH MO INTO
CENTRAL OK LATE THIS EVENING. WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED FROM SOUTHWEST MO ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MO. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE STL METRO AREA EARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

TPS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 8, 1:49 AM CST, 1 hour 56 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
149 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-081215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
149 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME FLOODING
POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
STORM PREDICTION CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON TUESDAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. SOME STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ATTENTION IS REQUIRED. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HEAVY RAINFALL OR ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

MILLER

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 7, 11:20 PM CST, 4 hours 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1120 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     HAIL             N WASHINGTON            38.56N 91.02W
01/07/2008  M1.50 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SIPPRELL

Local storm report, Jan 7, 11:33 PM CST, 4 hours 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1133 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 PM     HAIL             6 NW COTTLEVILLE        38.81N 90.73W
01/07/2008  E0.75 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOCATION AT WINGHAVEN BLVD AND HIGHWAY N.

&&

SIPPRELL

Local storm report, Jan 8, 12:35 AM CST, 3 hours 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1235 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 AM     HAIL             CUBA                    38.06N 91.40W
01/08/2008  E0.88 INCH       CRAWFORD           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            ALONG HIGHWAY 44 AT MILE MARKER 209.

&&

SIPPRELL

Local storm report, Jan 8, 12:45 AM CST, 3 hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1245 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 AM     HAIL             BOURBON                 38.15N 91.25W
01/08/2008  E0.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

SIPPRELL

Local storm report, Jan 8, 12:47 AM CST, 2 hours 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1247 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 AM     HAIL             N SULLIVAN              38.21N 91.17W
01/08/2008  E0.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT INTERSECTION OF LANDERS AND SOUTH SERVICE ROAD.

&&

SIPPRELL

Local storm report, Jan 8, 3:30 AM CST, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 AM     HAIL             AVISTON                 38.61N 89.61W
01/08/2008  E0.75 INCH       CLINTON            IL   STORM CHASER

            HAIL FELL FOR 2 MINUTES. ESTIMATED WINDS TO 45 MPH.

&&

KARLZ

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 7, 6:17 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Greene, Macoupin	28 min
Jan 7, 6:20 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Pike	40 min
Jan 7, 8:27 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Calhoun, Pike	48 min
Jan 7, 9:43 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Calhoun	47 min
Jan 7, 10:12 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Calhoun, Greene	39 min
Jan 8, 12:12 PM CST	River Flood Warning	LSX	Brown	5 days
Jan 8, 12:12 PM CST	River Flood Warning	LSX	Morgan, Pike	21 days
Jan 8, 12:12 PM CST	River Flood Warning	LSX	Pike, Scott	24 days

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.