Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 221044
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
544 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

MOC019-051-135-221115-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-080422T1115Z/
COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-BOONE MO-
544 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CDT
FOR BOONE...EASTERN MONITEAU AND NORTHWESTERN COLE COUNTIES...

AT 542 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARRISBURG TO HIGH POINT...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAYETTE TO 10 MILES NORTH OF
ELDON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE...
CENTERTOWN...SANDY HOOK...MIDWAY...MCBAINE...WILTON...MARION...
LOHMAN...EASLEY...COLUMBIA AND ST. MARTINS.

LAT...LON 3891 9251 3899 9258 3916 9249 3914 9213
      3872 9220 3872 9222 3865 9222 3843 9251
      3843 9265
TIME...MOT...LOC 1044Z 275DEG 35KT 3907 9249 3849 9252

$$

CVKING

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 221106
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
607 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

MOC019-051-135-221117-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-080422T1115Z/
COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-BOONE MO-
607 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BOONE...EASTERN MONITEAU AND
NORTHWESTERN COLE COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 615 AM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

LAT...LON 3891 9251 3899 9258 3916 9249 3914 9213
      3872 9220 3872 9222 3865 9222 3843 9251
      3843 9265
TIME...MOT...LOC 1107Z 275DEG 35KT 3905 9220 3847 9224

$$

CVKING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
309 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES UPON THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL
TROF/SHORTWAVE. FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST IS ON THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE CWA.

THIS MORNING...
CURRENTLY MUCAPES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ARE AROUND 1000
J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 30KT. EXPECT THE SHEAR
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVES CLOSER THIS
MORNING...BUT REMAIN BELOW 35 KTS. SEVERE RISK LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL
AT BEST THIS MORNING...WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE
SCATTERED MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION.

THIS AFTERNOON...
MID LEVEL TROF/SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 18Z WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. NONETHELESS...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL
COMBINE WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...CHARACTERIZED BY
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. STORM MODE STILL APPEARS TO BE
MULTI-CELLULAR AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES REMAIN BELOW 35KTS. I
EXPECT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS WITH THIS
CONVECTION...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT ACCORDINGLY IN THE HWO.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
FRONT SETTLES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FALLING OFF AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE LEFT LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. OTHERWISE...RISING HEIGHTS
SHOULD INSURE ANOTHER WARM APRIL DAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE PAST WEDNESDAY...

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MAIN FOCUS IS POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP DURING NEXT
24 HOURS. HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS FORECAST JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING TAF PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE AT COU AND UIN. SYSTEM FALLS APART SOMEWHAT BY THE TIME IT GETS
TO STL AND SUS AREA. STILL NOT ENUF CONFIDENCE TO GO PREDOMINATE
RA AT COU OR UIN. MODELS DO NOT SHOW A GOOD FORCING SIGNAL TO KEY
UPON AND THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHRA.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
422 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-231200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
422 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODERATE FLOODING WILL PERSIST FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY HAIL AND SEVERE WIND REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CVKING