River Flood Warning 80, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 311414
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
914 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  MARIES RIVER NEAR WESTPHALIA AFFECTING OSAGE COUNTY

     THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT 


SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC151-311444-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0080.000000T0000Z-080401T1228Z/
/WPHM7.1.ER.080330T2125Z.080331T0200Z.080331T0445Z.NO/
914 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MARIES RIVER NEAR WESTPHALIA.
* AT 8 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.3 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11:45 PM SUNDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.


$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   04/01  04/02  04/03  04/04  04/05

MARIES RIVER
  WESTPHALIA       10    5.3       7.4    4.5    3.5    3.1    2.9

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
528 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CNVTN FROM S MO INTO E TX AND LA HAS PLAYED
HAVOC WITH THE RETURN OF THE WARM AIR TODAY...SPCLY AT THE SFC.
FROM NW AR INTO S MO...MOIST SW LO LVL FLO IS INTERACTING WITH
COLD DOME CREATED BY PCPN EARLIER IN THE DAY...CAUSING SHWRS TO
REGENERATE FROM S OF SGF INTO FAM AREA. THINK THIS TREND WL GRDLY
WKN OVR THE NXT FEW HRS AS LO LVL JET BECOMES REFOCUSED/REESTABLISHED
OVR PLAINS.

WHILE SOME SPOTTY TSRA MAY CONT OVRNIGHT IN THE WAA OCRG ACR THE
REGION...THINK PRIMARY PCPN THRT BE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MSTR
ADV ASSOC ON THE NOSE OF THE LO LVL JET. GENESIS REGION SHUD BE
SOMEWHERE FROM E CNTRL KS INTO NW MO...AND ONCE CNVTN GETS GOING
IT SHUD RACE ENE WITH STG MID LVL FLOW. ATTM FEEL THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WL JUST BE CLIPPING THE FAR NW SECTION OF OUR CWA...BUT
IF GENESIS REGION IS FURTHER S THRT WL BE FURTHER INTO OUR AREA.
PRIMARY THRT WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS...IF THEY DO AFFECT OUR
AREA...SHUD BE LARGE HAIL.

LARGE MCS SHUD BE ONGOING ACR E NE AND IA BY 12Z MON...WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR N AREAS. HWVR...THE MAIN
THRT OF INTENSE CNVTN WL OBVIOUSLY BE TMRW AFTN AND TMRW NGT AS
MAIN TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND CDFNT BGNS PUSHING E.
SEVERITY OF THE STORMS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY AMT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WHICH 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST
WITH BOTH DUE TO STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND GREATER WARMING
OF THE SFC AMS.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO BCMG A BIT LESS
LINEAR...WHICH MAY MEAN THAT CNVTN WONT GO INTO A SQUALL LINE
QUITE AS FAST AS FIRST EXPECTED.

ON THE PCPN FRONT...EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING
THEY WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. NORMALLY IN THIS
SITN FLASH FLOODING IS NOT A MAJOR CONCERN...BUT WITH THE
EXTREMELY SATURATED GROUND IT WILL BE THIS TIME. HV ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS WHERE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE MOST
CRITICAL...BGNG IN CNTRL MO BY MIDDAY MON AND OVR E CNTRL AND SE
MO AND S IL 00Z TUE.  12Z MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THE TIMING OF
CDFNT THRU REGION...WHICH MEANS RAIN WL BE COMING TO AN END BY
ARND DAYBREAK TUE.

FOR THE RMNDR OF THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE CHGS TO
GOING FCST FAIRLY MINOR. AFTER DRY WX TUE AND INTO ERY WED...IT
APRS NXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHC OF MORE TSRA TO BULK OF THE
AREA...AND SCPLY TO S SECTIONS WHICH DOESNT NEED ANY MORE WET WX.
HOPEFULLLY...WE SHUD HV A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

CEILINGS LIFTING AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF I-70. BELIEVE BEST
CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT KUIN TONIGHT...WITH THE OTHER
THREE SITES REMAINING DRY IN THE WARM SECTOR. THEN ATTENTION TURNS
TO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH TOWARD CENTRAL
MISSOURI. WILL HAVE A PROB30 IN THE TAFS FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
THE VALID FORECAST AS CONVECTION MAY NOT REACH KCOU UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN WARM SECTOR.

CVKING

&&

.CLIMATE...
MARCH MONTHLY RAINFALL DATA

              2008               RECORD
STL     6.84  (8TH WETTEST)     8.25  1897
COU     4.64  (14TH WETTEST)    10.09 1973

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL RECORDS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE
CLIMATE TAB.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-IRON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MADISON-
     REYNOLDS-ST. CHARLES-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-
     STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-GASCONADE-MONITEAU-MONTGOMERY-
     OSAGE.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
431 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-311215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
431 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A PARIS....HANNIBAL
LINE...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE HAIL...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BEGIN OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY WORK EAST INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY
MONDAY EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. THIS HEAVY
RAIN...COMBINED WITH THE SATURATED GROUND OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WILL MEAN A THREAT OF
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...WITH
SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THURSDAY...AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. IN ADDITION...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY IN
MANY AREAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TRUETT