River Flood Warning 54, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 181534
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1034 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR AFFECTING MARION COUNTY

.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC127-181604-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-080320T0600Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.080318T0700Z.080318T0830Z.080318T1230Z.NO/
1034 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR.
* AT 9:31 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 7:30 AM TUESDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.
* IMPACT...AT 9.5 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING BEGINS.

$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   03/19  03/20  03/21  03/22  03/23

SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
  TAYLOR           10    9.4       8.3    6.2    4.9    4.4    4.1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1220 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST WHICH HANDLES
IMPENDING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT WELL AND DO NOT PLAN ANY
CHANGES TO GOING WATCHES.

BUSY DAY SO FAR TODAY AS WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPED ON THE NOSE
OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL JET LATE LAST NIGHT AND CONTINUED INTO MOST
OF TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE WAY THIS SYSTEM
WILL EVOLVE THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CWA WILL LIE UNDER SUSTAINED STRONG
VERTICAL ASCENT THROUGH TOMORROW CAUSED BY NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH AND POSITION OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE GREAT LAKES JET. FIRST AREA OF SHRA/TSRA
NOW OVER WRN AND NRN MO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
NRN PART OF THE CWA. 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL THEN FOCUS FARTHER SOUTHEAST OVER THE CNTRL AND
SERN PARTS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE
CWA TOMORROW. THIS WILL ACT TO FURTHER INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TOMORROW AS 60KT
LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS HIGHLY ANOMOLOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES MAKING ANY TSRA HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS.

MODELS ARE NOW SLOWER WITH EJECTING THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG ASCENT ALONG WITH THE GREAT
LAKES JET STREAK. HAVE UPPED POPS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW.

THE GFS/NAM/ECWMF/SREF ALL HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS ACROSS
SRN MO INTO SRN IL INCLUDING THE FAR SRN CWA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE FAR NRN PART OF THE CWA. DO THINK
THAT THE GFSS TOTAL OF >9 INCHES OVER THE SRN THREE COUNTIES IS
MOST LIKELY TOO HIGH BECAUSE OF NOTICEABLE GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK...
BUT CERTAINLY THINK THAT 5-7 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE SRN COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY BECAUSE EVEN THE SREF IS
SHOWING THIS.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF GFS MOS AND SREF MEAN.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST (THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY) IS LOWER TODAY AS OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN SHOWING INCREASING RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
PROBLEMS.  HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC OF SHRA IN FOR FRIDAY AS BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MO/IL IN ZONAL FLOW.
LAST NIGHTS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECWMF DIGS A LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDWEST COMPARED
TO YESTERDAYS RUNS WHICH WAS DEEPER AND FARTHER TO THE WEST. WILL
STILL GO WITH CHC OF SHRA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE BASED MAINLY ON PERSISTENCE AND
HPC GUIDANCE.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
WARM FRONT DRAPPED ACROSS SRN MO AND SRN IL HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER
THE LAST 8 HRS. PRIMARY AXIS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HRS ACROSS SRN MO/IL WITH STL AREA
WITHIN THE NRN FRINGE. MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDS EXPECTED
WITH THE RAIN/TSRA. BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER RAIN WILL MOVE
BACK NWD AND IMPACT KCOU. GUIDANCE INSISTS IT WILL THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT RAIN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUES. VSBYS/CIGS
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF MO INTO CENTRAL IL SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER
TNGT WITH STRATUS AND BR AND FALL TO IFR IN THE WAKE OF AN
INVERTED TROF AND CDFNT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-
     JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OSAGE-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS
     CITY-WARREN-WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
     ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-
     KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RALLS-
     SHELBY.

IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE
     IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     ST. CLAIR IL.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-
     MARION IL-RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-181200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
344 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FLOODING ON LOCAL
STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE LIKELY. LOW LYING AREAS AND LOW
WATER CROSSINGS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING. SEE FLOOD
WATCH AND WARNING PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ON THIS FLOODING
EVENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BRING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 IN MISSOURI AND INTERSTATE 70 IN ILLINOIS.

THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SERIOUS FLOODING ON LOCAL
STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS. LOW LYING AREAS AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING. SEE FLOOD WATCH AND
WARNING PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ON THIS FLOODING EVENT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE ASKED TO RELAY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CVKING