River Flood Warning 32, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 181747
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1147 AM CST MON FEB 18 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
ILLINOIS...MISSOURI...
 
  MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT HANNIBAL AFFECTING PIKE AND MARION COUNTIES

.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION 
THE PAST 36 HOURS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION 
AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

ILC149-MOC127-181817-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-080221T0000Z/
/HNNM7.1.ER.080218T1442Z.080218T1530Z.080218T1534Z.NO/
1147 AM CST MON FEB 18 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT HANNIBAL.
* AT 11:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.5 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  9:34 AM MONDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 15.7 FEET BY TUESDAY
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  DAMAGE BEGINS TO BUILDINGS IN 
  UNPROTECTED LOW AREAS.  MINOR FLOODING BEGINS.

$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   02/19  02/20  02/21  02/22  02/23

MISSISSIPPI RIVER
  HANNIBAL         16   15.5      15.7   15.3   15.0   14.5   14.0

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
457 AM CST MON FEB 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...

HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS...AS ANOTHER WILD WEEK OF WEATHER LIES AHEAD.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THROUGH
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE TODAY...AND THE OTHER TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. IN FACT...TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DROP AFTER THE
SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NOW DEPICTS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A DISTURBANCE WITH PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE
AND APPROACH THE MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS
NEXT STORM SYSTEM...BUT AT LEAST ONE TREND SHOULD BE NOTED.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS TRENDING COLDER AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE CWA MIDWEEK. WITH DRY AND COLD EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENT...IT APPEARS THAT WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR. HAVE KEPT SNOW AS PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST...BUT AS WITH ANY OVERRUNNING EVENT...FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT PUSHES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA AND CANNOT BE OFFSET BY THE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

OBVIOUSLY THE DETAILS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS
IT IS BETTER SAMPLED. UNFORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT THE NOAM UPPER
AIR NETWORK WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SAMPLE THIS SYSTEM UNTIL 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO MODEL GUIDANCE WILL ONLY HAVE SATELLITE WIND
ESTIMATES TO DERIVE THEIR SOLUTIONS UPON UNTIL THEN.

THIS SYSTEM DEFINETLY BARES WATCHING AS IT COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TO 50 PERCENT AND WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGES MADE PAST FRIDAY...

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE ONLY PRECIPITATION BEING
SCATTERED FLURRIES THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR FLURRIES AND LOWER CEILINGS
WILL BE AT KUIN WHERE I HAVE PLACED BKN020 CIGS FROM 2101 IN A
TEMPO GROUP WITH THE MENTION OF FLURRIES. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD CAUSING WINDS TO GUST
THROUGH 00Z. HAVE SHOWED A GENERALLY DECREASE IN SPEED AFT 00Z.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
311 AM CST MON FEB 18 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-191200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
311 AM CST MON FEB 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF
5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CVKING