River Flood Warning 316, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1103 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/525 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008/

TONS OF WX...AND ALL OF THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NEXT 24HRS.
MOST OF THE MOS TEMPS ARE VERY INADEQUATELY HANDLING THE TEMPS
OVER THE AREA ATTM AS WELL AS MAX TEMPS TODAY...BEING TOO COOL.
GIVEN THAT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
WHERE IT IS RAINING IN THE NRN FA...WOULD EXPECT A SMALL DIURNAL
SWING TODAY UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER BEFORE THE RAIN HITS
EVERYWHERE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD PLACE STL METRO
TEMPS NEAR RECORD LEVELS...WITH THE RECORD AT KSTL BEING 72F SET
IN 1971. LESS SO IN CNTRL MO...WHERE THE RECORD IS 71F SET IN
1946...BUT EARLIER EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF RAIN WILL PREVENT IT FROM
WARMING TOO MUCH. FOR FORECAST TEMPS TODAY...WENT ABOVE THE WARMEST
MET MOS FOR KUIN/KCOU AREAS AND NEAR WARMEST MET MOS FOR
ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL THEN PLUMMET BEHIND FRONT...BY AS MUCH AS
30F IN JUST A FEW HOURS.

PLENTY OF ENERGY TO WORK OFF OF...BUT MAIN SHOW WILL TAKE PLACE
NEAR CDFNT ITSELF. LOOK FOR MUCH OF WHAT WE SEE NOW TO CONTINUE...
WITH SMALLER AREAS OF TSRA/SHRA TO PASS THRU UNTIL MIDDAY HOURS
WHEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WRN FA AND STRONG DIVERGENCE AT H300 FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET PASSES OVERHEAD TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF TSRA
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF FRONT AS WELL. SHEAR LARGELY POINTS TO A
DAMAGING WIND EVENT...ALTHOUGH EARLY IN THE LIFESPAN...COULD SEE
SUPERCELLS AS WELL. RAW SPEED AT WHICH CELLS ARE MOVING WILL MAKE
IT PRETTY EASY TO ATTAIN DAMAGING WINDS IN A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU THE WRN HALF OF THE FA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN THRU THE REST BY EARLY THIS
EVENING.

HIGH PWAT AIR ON THE ORDER OF 400PCT OF NORMAL WILL CONTINUE TO
RESIDE UNTIL FROPA...AND ALLOW FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES SHOULD BE COMMON...AND
FALLING ON SATURATED OR FROZEN GROUND WILL RESULT IN HIGH RATES OF
RUNOFF. HAVE MAINTAIND FFA THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WINDY DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 40-50KT
WINDS JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE GROUND...BUT MEAGER
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ONLY ALLOW THIS RESERVE OF WIND TO BE TAPPED
SELDOMLY BEFORE FROPA. ONCE FROPA OCCURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST...AND THIS WILL MAKE IT MUCH MORE FAVORABLE TO TAP INTO WINDS
ALOFT. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF 2-3 HOURS
WHEN THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF WIND TO TAP INTO ALOFT...AND FOR
THESE REASONS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER FROPA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG.

COLD AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT EXPECTED POSN OF DRY
SLOT WILL SHUT OF THE PCPN OFF BEFORE THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE FA. AREAS THAT WILL BE ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE DRY SLOT...IN NERN MO...WILL HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...BUT ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...MOST LIKELY
JUST A DUSTING. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR A BRIEF OCCURRENCE OF
FZRA OR PL AS WARM WEDGE OF AIR GETS LEFT BEHIND FROM SUDDEN RUSH
OF COLD AIR AT THE B-LYR.

OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH A SEASONABLE...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...TEMP REGIME TO
TAKE HOLD. GENERALLY DRY WX WILL RESULT.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
/1102 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO EAST MO LATE THIS
MORNING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED AT KCOU AND KUIN.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TPS
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AUDRAIN-
     BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-IRON-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-
     MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST.
     FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
     WASHINGTON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IRON-JEFFERSON-
     MADISON-REYNOLDS-ST. CHARLES-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST.
     LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BOND IL-CLINTON IL-
     FAYETTE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-
     MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
750 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-281200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
750 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THE THREATS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL TO NICKEL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS
TO 70 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION
CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS...SOME TRAINING IS EXPECTED...
AND THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FALL ON GROUND THAT IS EITHER FROZEN
OR SATURATED...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH PRODUCT.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...BOTH
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH TO SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT...AND GUSTS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADVISORY PRODUCT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...
SLEET...AND SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES

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