River Flood Warning 258, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 061444
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
944 AM CDT WED AUG 06 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...

 
  NORTH RIVER AT PALMYRA AFFECTING MARION COUNTY


THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC127-061514-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0258.000000T0000Z-080807T0800Z/
/PALM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.080806T0345Z.080806T0509Z.UU/
944 AM CDT WED AUG 06 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE NORTH RIVER AT PALMYRA.
* AT  8:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.1 FEET. 
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 12:09 AM WEDNESDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 4.1 FEET BY TOMORROW 
  MORNING.


$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   08/07  08/08  08/09  08/10  08/11

NORTH RIVER
  PALMYRA          13    6.1       4.1    3.9    3.9    3.8    3.8

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
658 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

.UPDATE...
/653 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008/

HAVE LOCALLY EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 810 TO INCLUDE THE
REST OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN THIS AREA IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES GREATER THAN 4000
J/KG. WHILE SHEAR IS WEAK...TSRA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG OUTFLOWS FROM ONGOING STORMS.

HAVE ALSO ALLOWED THE HEAT ADVISORY AND WARNING TO EXPIRE. OUTFLOW
FROM THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW CRITERIA AS
THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH.

BRITT

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/326 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008/
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TRANSITIONING FROM HEAT TO POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAS WORKED SWWD AND NOW
EXTENDS FROM HANNIBAL THROUGH THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE DROPPED THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY WHERE WHERE CRITERIA WILL LIKEELY NOT BE MET THE REST OF
THE DAY. OTHERWISE...TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND
BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES IN THE 3000-5000 J/KG RANGE
WITH WEAKING CIN IN ADVANCE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MO ALONG WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ACT AS FOCUS FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP ON. WHILE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE SUFFICENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS IF
THEY DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY. WILL ALSO BE WATCH THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH ANY SLOW MOVING CELLS ALONG FRONT IN
ENVIORNMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ABOVE 2 INCHES.

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME WNWLY BY TOMORROW AND FRONT WILL STAY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SWRN PART OF THE CWA AND LINGER NEARBY
THROUGH THURSDAY.  HAVE KEPT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA GOING INTO THURSDAY
WHEN FRONT GET PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH AS UPPER FLOW BECOME MORE NWLY
WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING IN THE GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME SOLAR
INSOLATION FOR MLCAPES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE. THIS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 35-40KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SO SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALONG BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
PER SPC SWODY2. WILL KEEP CHC OF SHRA/TRSA GOING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST IS LOWER TODAY AS
THERE ARE SIGNFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN WITH
HOW TO HANDLE POLAR VORTEX OVER ERN CANADA. CONTINUTY OF ECWMF IS
NOT AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY AS POLAR VORTEX REMAINS OVER THE HUDSON
BAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INSTEAD OF MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL
QUICKER OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS MO/IL AND FASTER RETURN OF WARMER
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/1233 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTH AT A SNAILS PACE WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NOW PARKED ACROSS THE METROPOLITAN AREA. LOOKING FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TOWARD EVENING. AFTER A LULL DURING THE MIDNIGHT HOUR...MORE
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO FORM AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA
AND 850MB CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GO FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH FROPA...BUT VARIABLE
IN VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LOOKS TO BE AN
ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-
     CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-
     MONITEAU-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS
     CITY-WARREN-WASHINGTON.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IRON-MADISON-
     REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MADISON
     IL-MONROE IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLINTON IL-MARION
     IL-RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-061145-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
720 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORMS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...
SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY
FLOODING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
833 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     TORNADO          BROWNSTOWN              39.00N  88.95W
08/05/2008                   FAYETTE            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POSSIBLE TORNADO...JUST WEST OF TOWN MOVING SE...PUBLIC
            REPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800867

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
835 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     LEBANON                 38.60N  89.81W
08/05/2008  E60 MPH          ST. CLAIR          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 TO 3 INCH LIMBS DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800868

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
837 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLOOD            SPENCERBURG             39.42N  91.39W
08/05/2008                   PIKE               MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HWY E EAST OF SPENCERBURG IS CLOSED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800869

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
840 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             MEHLVILLE               38.50N  90.32W
08/05/2008  M0.70 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT THE INTERSECTION OF I 255 AND TELEGRAPH RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800871

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
842 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POCAHONTAS              38.82N  89.54W
08/05/2008                   BOND               IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            3 TO 5 INCH LIMBS DOWN...JACKKNIFED SEMI ON I 64
            BETWEEN POCAHONTAS AND HIGHLAND

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800872

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
906 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE CADET              38.02N  90.65W
08/05/2008  M3.25 INCH       WASHINGTON         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL AS OF 9 PM...STILL RAINING

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800873

TRUETT