River Flood Warning 23, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 170938
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
337 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  MOREAU RIVER NEAR JEFFERSON CITY AFFECTING COLE COUNTY 

.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF NEARLY 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION THE
PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1 INCH FORECAST 
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

LOCAL RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AND NEAR THE BASIN SHOULD BE AWARE OF 
POSSIBLE FLOODING.  DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.  TURN
AROUND, DONT DROWN.

HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE RIVER LEVELS TO RISE EVEN HIGHER THAN PREDICTED.
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION 
AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC051-180937-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0023.080218T0352Z-080219T1410Z/
/JCMM7.1.ER.080218T0352Z.080218T1200Z.080218T1410Z.NO/
337 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MOREAU RIVER NEAR JEFFERSON CITY
* FROM THIS EVENING TO TUESDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 2:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 17.8 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. 
* THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING.


$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   02/18  02/19  02/20  02/21  02/22

MOREAU RIVER
  JEFFERSON CITY   17    3.9       7.6   17.8    5.8    3.1    2.5

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 171459
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
859 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  MOREAU RIVER NEAR JEFFERSON CITY AFFECTING COLE COUNTY

.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION 
THE PAST 24 HOURS AND AROUND 0.25 INCHES FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION 
AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC051-171529-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-080219T1410Z/
/JCMM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
859 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MOREAU RIVER NEAR JEFFERSON CITY.
* AT 8:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 14.5 FEET 
  MONDAY MORNING.


$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   02/18  02/19  02/20  02/21  02/22

MOREAU RIVER
  JEFFERSON CITY   17    7.8      14.5    5.6    3.0    2.5    2.3

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
602 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE OH VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
NORTHEAST TX. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MO BY 12Z SUNDAY AND
THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL MI BY EVENING. UPPER CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO EARLY ON SUNDAY WHERE MODELS
FORECAST A 260-280 METER HEIGHT FALL CENTER.

SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A STEADY MARCH TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DENSE OVERCAST. SURFACE TEMPS WERE HAVING
A TOUGH TIME WARMING MUCH INTO THE 30S AS A RESULT WITH EASTERLY
WINDS. SATELLITE TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MO/NORTHWEST AR AT THIS TIME. RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO. EXPECT THE RAIN TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH POPS
OF 100%. THE GOOD OLD NGMS MAJIC CHART FORECASTS A 120 MB RISE
CENTER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDING FORECASTS LOOK REASONABLE AND FOLLOWED FAIRLY
CLOSELY WITH THE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ON SUNDAY.

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON PRESIDENTS DAY AT 850. NOW THE OTHER MODELS
ARE COMING AROUND TO THAT MODELS SOLUTION. -20C TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN INTO NORTHEAST MO BY MONDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE GFS/ECMWF BY THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

TPS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LATEST WX DEPICTION CHART SHOWED IFR CONDITIONS
WHERE CEILINGS AT OF BELOW 700 FEET AND VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM
1/2 TO 4 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG. WE INSERTED TEMPO CONDITIONS FROM
EARLIER FORECAST WITH CEILING RUNNING BETWEEN 3OO TO 400 FT AND
VISIBILITIES DROPPING AT OR BELOW 1 1/2 MILE IN RAIN AND FOG TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW OVER SE OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDING EAST
INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES SOUTH FROM
SURFACE LOW THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTH FROM SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. EXPECT SURFACE LOW
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 1200 UTC SUNDAY AND THEN TRACK
NORTHEAST IL BY 0000 UTC MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
CENTRAL MISSOURI ARND 2100 AND OVER STL AREA BETWEEN 2300 AND 0000
UTC. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY WILL GUSTING TO 25 KTS OVER
STL AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. MAINLY RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDER OVER STL AND SUS TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-
     CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-IRON-JEFFERSON-
     KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-
     MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST.
     FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
     WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
     BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
     IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
301 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-171215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
301 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE RAIN
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLOODING OF STREAMS AND
SMALL RIVERS AND SURROUNDING LOW LYING AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO THE WATCH PRODUCT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

MODERATE FLOODING IS ALREADY EXPECTED OR OCCURRING ON PORTIONS OF
THE ILLINOIS RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH PRODUCT.

AT LEAST MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY CAUSING THE RAIN
TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH THE
TENDENCY FOR FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1