River Flood Warning 156, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 101556
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1056 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN MISSOURI...
 
  BOURBEUSE RIVER AT UNION AFFECTING FRANKLIN COUNTY 

.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
THE PAST 24 HOURS AND NEAR 0.5 INCHES FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION
AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC071-111556-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0156.000000T0000Z-080511T1800Z/
/UNNM7.1.ER.080510T1015Z.080510T1330Z.080510T1800Z.NO/
1056 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BOURBEUSE RIVER AT UNION
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT 9:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED AT 15.2 FEET AT 8:30 THIS MORNING.  
  THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING BEGINS.

$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   05/11  05/12  05/13  05/14  05/15

BOURBEUSE RIVER
  UNION            15   15.1      10.7    7.1    7.9    5.8    3.7

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 110322
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1022 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSOURI...
 
  BOURBEUSE RIVER AT UNION AFFECTING FRANKLIN COUNTY

.THIS IS THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS FLOODING EVENT...

MOC071-110352-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0156.000000T0000Z-080511T1800Z/
/UNNM7.1.ER.080510T1015Z.080510T1330Z.080510T1618Z.NO/
1022 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BOURBEUSE RIVER AT UNION.
* AT 9:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.4 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11:18 AM SATURDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 7.1 FEET BY MONDAY 
  MORNING.

$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   05/11  05/12  05/13  05/14  05/15

BOURBEUSE RIVER
  UNION            15    8.4       8.1    7.1    8.9    6.4    4.0

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
425 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/424 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008/
00Z MODEL FCSTS ARE STGLY IN SUPPORT OF GOING FCST TRENDS...SO
CHGS IN UPCOMING FCST PKG ARE VRY MINOR.

ONE OF THE CHGS IS TO INCLUDE PATCHY DNS FOG FOR A FEW HRS THIS
MRNG ALG AND S OF A MEXICO...LITCHFIELD LN. DID CONTEMPLATE AN
ADVSRY...BUT FROM THE STL AREA E OBS INDICATE THAT FOG IS PATCHY
AND DOES NOT SEEM TO BE SETTLING IN AS PER VRBL CONDS. FOG OVR W
COUNTIES DOES APR TO BE A BIT MORE WDSPRD....BUT CLDS AND MIXING
ARE ON THE INCR HERE SO THINK THAT CONDS SHUD BE IMPROVING IN THIS
AREA OVR THE NXT FEW HRS.

FOR RMNDR OF FCST...BASIC SCENARIO RMNS THE SAME. WAA AND LEAD SHTWV MAY
KICK OFF AFTN TSRA ALG AND W OF MSRVR...BUT MAIN ROUND OF PCPN WL
OCR TNGT WITH APRCH OF MAIN TROF AND EVENTUAL FORMATION OF CUTOFF
LO BY 12Z SUN. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWING UP IN THE MASS FIELDS
BY TNGT...AND SPCLY WITH THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM WL BE TRACKING BY 12Z SUN.  IT APRS THAT GFS IS
AGAIN SUFFERING FROM CNVTV FEEDBACK AS ERY AS THIS AFTN WITH
INITIAL CNVTN...WHICH APRS TO CAUSE SWD SHIFT OF SYSTEM OVRNGT.
HV TRENDED FCST FIELDS TO A COMPROMISE BTWN THE GFS AND WRF/NAM.

AS MENTIONED BY YSTDA DAY SHIFT...SVR POTENTIAL IN OUR CWA WL
HINGE ON AVBL INSTABILITY. CERTAINLY DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT MODEL FCSTS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WL BE LACKING.
0-6KM MUCAPE FROM WRF/NAM IS DOWNRIGHT WOEFUL...AND WHILE GFS IS MORE
ROBUST WITH THE INSTABILITY IT APRS THAT THIS MAY BE A FUNCTION OF
THE CNVTV FEEDBACK MENTIONED ERYR. ANOTHER CONCERN IS CNVTN THAT
WILL FIRE LT THIS AFTN ALG SFC BNDRY OVR AR...WHICH WL CERTAINLY
LIMIT INSTABILITY FURTHER N INTO OUR CWA. IF INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED...THERE WL BE A NRW WINDOW OF SVR WX WITH PASSAGE OF
STG CDFNT DURG THE EVE HRS.

HVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE OF SOME CONCERN FROM TWO SOURCES. THE
FIRST IS WITH THE CNVTN THAT WILL DVLP S OF SFC SYS AND ALG/AHD OF
CDFNT THIS EVE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT SHUD LIMIT
RESIDENT TIME OF CELLS OVR ANY ONE AREA...SO HVY RAINFALL THAT
DOES FORM SHUD BE SMWHAT BRIEF. THE SCND AREA OF HVY RAIN WILL BE
BENEATH UPR LO/COMMA HEAD...AND IF THE SLGT NWD ADJ MENTIONED ERYR
IS CORRECT HVY RAIN WITH THIS PART OF THE SYSTEM WL PRIMARILY
AFFECT AREAS JUST TO THE N OF OUR CWA.

00Z RUNS CONT TO PAINT A VRY DISMAL WX PICTURE FOR SUN...WITH NW
WNDS GUSTING WELL OVR 30 MPH AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB THRU
THE 50S. WET WX WL ALSO PERSIST...SPCLY ALG AND E OF MS RVR IN
MSTR WRAPPING ARND UPR LO. MOMS CERTAINLY DESERVE BTR THAN
THIS...

SLOW CLRG WL WORK ACR THE AREA SUN NGT...AND IT NOW APRS THAT DRY
WX WL HOLD ACR AREA ON MON AND MON NGT AS UPR RDG PUSHES ACR CNTRL
U.S. TSRA CHCS TO RETURN BY TUE WITH APRCH OF NXT SYS. FOR
COLLABORATION PURPOSES DID MAKE A FEW COSMETIC CHGS TO WED...OTRW
NO CHGS TO RMNDR OF MEDIUM RANGE.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION...
/1140 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AT ALL TAF SITES AS OF 0430Z. SO MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING AT KCOU AND EXPECT KSUS TO GO DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY NOW
THAT THEY HAVE CLEARED OUT. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...DRIER
AIR IS SLOWLY ADVECTING SOUTH ACROSS REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER
ILLINOIS. SO THERE WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN THE DRY AIR TO THE NORTH
AND THE MOISTER AIR TO THE SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR VSBYS AT
KCOU...KSUS AND KSTL...BUT IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT SOME
LOCATIONS. AS FOR KUIN...THEY WERE ABLE TO MIX OUT TODAY...SO THEY
SHOULD JUST SEE CLEAR SKIES.

AFTER 11Z...WILL BEGIN TO SEE CIRRUS DECK SPREAD ACROSS REGION AHEAD
OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH AC NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. BEST CHANCES OF
PCPN WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY. INTRODUCED PROB30S AT KCOU AROUND
23Z...AND FOR KUIN/KSTL/KSUS AROUND 02Z.

BYRD

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR MAY 11

COU   53 IN 1952
STL   53 IN 1960

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1000 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-101200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
1000 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCT FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 35 TO 40 MPH WILL IMPACT THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCT FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES