Flood Watch 3, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS63 KLSX 241524
FFALSX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1024 AM CDT THU APR 24 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

.ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED.

MOZ018-019-026-027-034-035-041-042-047>051-059-072-241630-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-080424T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KNOX-LEWIS-SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-
OSAGE-CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-GASCONADE-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HANNIBAL...COLUMBIA...MEXICO...
JEFFERSON CITY
1024 AM CDT THU APR 24 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI...EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN.

$$

SCHROEDER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
250 AM CDT THU APR 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND NORTH/NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A VEERING 50KT LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE AT
LEAST AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL THIS MORNING. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING AS BROKEN CEILINGS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. NEW CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION SHOULD ADVANCE NORTHEAST BY EVENING WITH
THE ENTIRE CWA FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SOME CONCERN THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AN
ACCOMPANYING 50KT LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AS 4KM WRF AND NAM PORTRAY A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ADVANCING QUICKLY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN IOWA AT 12Z TO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN BY 00Z. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE PORTRAYS 1000
TO 2000 J/KG CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 0-6KM WIND SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40KTS. CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION CONFINED ALONG THE
FRONT AND BELIEVE INITIAL STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLS. MODE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR FURTHER EAST DUE TO STORM
INTERACTION. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK IN THE NEW DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST PAST SATURDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEAVING LIGHT SHRA BEHIND. MAIN FOCUS OF
PRECIP IS STILL LINE OF TSRA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING PRECIP MAY LINGER LONGER THAN
PREV ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED VCTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
AND PULLED PRECIP IN THE EARLY EVENING.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-
     CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-GASCONADE-KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-MONITEAU-
     MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-RALLS-SHELBY.

IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
351 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-241200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
351 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE EASTERN OZARKS. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

MODERATE FLOODING WILL PERSIST FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MODERATE FLOODING WILL PERSIST FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY HAIL OR STRONG WIND REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
936 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     HAIL             CALIFORNIA              38.63N 92.57W
04/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       MONITEAU           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR CALIFORNIA MISSOURI

0611 PM     HAIL             JAMESTOWN               38.77N 92.48W
04/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       MONITEAU           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL REPORTED 2 MILES SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN. ALSO WIND
            ESTIMATED BETWEEN 40-50 MPH

0614 PM     HAIL             JAMESTOWN               38.77N 92.48W
04/23/2008  E1.00 INCH       MONITEAU           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN. WIND EASTIMATED AT 30-35 MPH

&&

TRUETT