Flash Flood Warning 60, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS73 KLSX 131605
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1104 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

MOC137-131614-
/O.EXP.KLSX.FF.W.0060.000000T0000Z-080613T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE MO-
1104 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR MONROE COUNTY...

A CHECK WITH AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR FLOODING 
WAS STILL OCCURING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN AREAL FLOOD 
WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM.

LAT...LON 3961 9230 3961 9173 3943 9172 3934 9185
      3935 9231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1201Z 180DEG 0KT 3950 9215

$$

GLASS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/339 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008/
IT TOOK A WHILE...BUT CNVTN FINALLY PUSHED INTO OUR CWA ARND MIDN.
OUTFLO BNDRY HAS RACED AHD OF CNVTN...AND 88D IMAGERY INDICATES
BNDRY IS NR A KVIH-KSTL-KTAZ LN JUST BFR 09Z. AS FAR AS HVY RAIN
THRT IS CONCERNED...BLV HVIEST RAINFALL NXT CPL HRS WL BE ALG A
COU-UIN LN...BUT MVMT OF OUTFLO BNDRY AND ORIENTATION OF CNVTN
FROM S CNTRL KS INTO SW MO MAKES ME BLV THAT HVIEST RAINFALL AXIS
SHUD TAKE ON A MORE W-E ORIENTATION FROM N OZARKS THRU STL DURG
THE MRNG. WITH THIS THINKING...HV REMOVED FAR NW 3 COUNTIES FROM
FFA AND ADDED CRAWFORD AND WASHINGTON. HV NOT ALTERED ANY END
TIMES OF THE FFA...BUT IF ABV TRENDS ARE REALIZED ADDITIONAL
TRIMMING OF N PARTS OF THE FFA WL BE NECESSARY AS HVY RAIN THRT
REFOCUSES S.

BY AFTN...BLV OUTFLO BNDRY FROM THIS MRNGS CNVTN WL BE THE
EFFECTIVE BNDRY FOR ADDL TSRA DVLPMT...PRIMARILY ALG AND SCPLY S
OF I-70. HWVR...HV HELD ONTO CHC POPS ACR THE N...AS SYNOPTIC FNT
AND RESIDUAL LO LVL MSTR MAY PRODUCE JUST ENUF LIFT/INSTABILITY TO
KICK OFF A FEW STORMS DURG THE HEAT OF THE AFTN.

STORMS SHUD EXIT S AREAS ERY THIS EVE...AND THEN IT APRS THAT WE
WL HV TRANQUIL WX THRU SAT NGT AND INTO SUN MRNG AS SFC RDG DRIFTS
ACR AREA. THRU SAT...IT APRS THAT MAV GUID IS TOO WRM FOR MAX
TEMPS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SVRL WEEKS...AND HV LEANED TWD
MET NUMBERS.

HWVR...SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT ARE BGNG TO LOOK INTERESTING
ONCE AGAIN. RETURN LO LVL FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC RDG IS FCST TO
ADV LO LVL MSTR BACK INTO AREA...DESTABILIZING AMS AHD OF SHTWV
EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. WHILE WRF/NAM AND GFS VARY IN
SPECIFICS...BOTH MODELS DO FCST CNVTN TO DVLP AND PUSH SE ACR
AREA. HV UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHC CAT GIVEN AGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION...
/650 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...FCSTS REFLECT AN EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR
TRENDS/PCPN...AND SFC OB TRENDS...NOTED OVR THE PAST 6 HRS. IN
SUMMARY...70NM WIDE BAND OF SHWRS/EMBDD TSRA CENTERED ON A KCOU-
KPPQ LINE SHUD GRDLY SHIFT SE DURG THE MRNG...WITH PRIMARY THRT OF
CNVTN OCRG ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PCPN SHIELD. BY AFTN BLV
THAT BULK OF THE PCPN THRT...INCLUDING DIURNAL REDVLPMT ON OUTFLO
BNDRY...WL OCR S OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. CLRG SKIES AND LGT WNDS
OVRNGT SHUD LEAD TO SM FOG THRT DURING THE PREDAWN HRS ON
SAT...AND HV INTRODUCED MENTION WITH THIS TAF SET.

TRUETT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING TWO TO POSSIBLY THREE INCHES OF QPF OVER
THE FABIUS...NORTH AND LA MOINE RIVER BASINS. THIS WILL PUSH THESE
RIVERS INTO FLOOD AGAIN. THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS WILL GO BACK INTO WRN
MO/ERN CAUSING A SECOND CREST ON THE MISSOURI MAIN STEM FROM JEF
CITY TO HERMANN INTO MID JUNE.

BAGNELL DAM RELEASES HAVE INCREASED BUT BELOW PREVIOUS NUMBERS.

LATEST FORECAST USING OBSERVED RAINFALL AND STAGES AS WELL AS 24
HOURS OF QPF CAUSES INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF MAJOR FLOODING ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOVE ITS CONFLUENCE WITH THE MISSOURI. MOST
SITES WILL CREST BETWEEN 1973 AND 1993 LEVELS WITH A COUPLE
POINTS NOW NEAR THOSE 93 RECORDS. PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE
MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR CURRENT AND FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SIECZYNSKI

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-
     CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-
     MONITEAU-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-
     ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN-WASHINGTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MARION-
     MONROE.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BOND IL-BROWN IL-
     CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-
     MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADAMS IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-141200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
649 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ENDING OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI... MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE
FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE
FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
IN ADDITION...SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY RAINFALL OF
OVER AN INCH...OR ANY FLOODING THAT THEY OBSERVE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TRUETT